Study On The Risk Early Warning System Of PFI Project

The lack of the government financial capital and the city infrastructure works are to be built,the participatation of the private capital to the public project construction and management model become more popular.The introduction of the PFI(Private Finance Initiative) project finance and management model makes great contribution to resolve the problems governments met in many countries.This model can promote the construction of the public project.The PFI project is a systematic work involving the politics,economic,law, society and natural environment,the high risk is commonly recognized by the experts.So the risk study on the PFI project is very important.To analyze the risk charaters and identify and make countermesures.Risks which are difficult to control can be avoid and decline the dangerous and loss under the early warning system.This is the function of the earlywarning system,the thesis is trying to establish such a early warning system to control and manage the risks,and.the risk control and make countermeasures and resolve the risk effectively and finally get profits and finally get the good result of the project..The main contents of this thesis are that early warning system of PFI project includes three modules.They are risk identification & analysis module,early warning module and risk risk countermeasure module.These three parts compose a circle.Fistly,this paper made a general analysis on the basic theory and conception,characters and methods,research the different conditions of PFI in different countries.Then,carry on risk identification and analysis to the PFI project to find out the risk factors which will influence the project;then build up the early warning index system to measure the weight of the risk factor and their influence;and finally this paper adopt valid countermeasures to the risks sending out early warning signal to guard against and evade the risks.The innovation of the thesis is to establish a evaluation system for this kind of special project.There is a new mind on the methods of the determination of weighing of risk index, and that makes the weighing process more accurate and more reasonable by combining subjective and objective weights methods.In this thesis,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Delphi are used to determine the weighing.On the basis of analyzing the current methods of appraisal of project risk,the paper puts forward a model based on Fuzzy Comprhensive Evaluation to make it possible to evaluate the PFI project risk.This constructs the core of the early warning system.This model gives a scientific and quantitive support to the decision of the PFI project.This system is used in the practice of the project and make the risk evaluation more applicable.The study of the paper is the combination of the theories of the PFI project construction,risk management and early warning. The initiative of this paper is to establish a risk early warning system.The purpose of building up the early warning system of PFI project is to apply to practice,therefore the paper take No.4 route of Beijing metro project and No.1 route of Harbin metro project as cases to carry on the demonstration ananlysis to the early warning system,and examine the feasibility of early warning system with the practice of risk management.On the practice applying,this system is necessary to control the risk during the execution,successful running process,it is propitious to the value realization of private money and the government to get the high quality projects,therefore enhance the maneuverability and practicability of risk evaluation.