The Analysis Of Technology Spillovers Based On Spatial Econometrics And Threshold Regressions

The channels of tehnology spillovers are multiple. From the perspective of technology senders, there are internatioal technology spillovers and intranational technology spillovers. As technology recipients, they can depend on learning by doing, learning by observing, learning by competition, learning by R&D or by personnel flows. The utilities of channels and strength of spillovers are variable across industries. Although channels are provided, technology spillovers occur or not depending on the absorptive capacity represented by technological level and human capital. Positive technology spillovers take place only if the recipients satisfy a certain threshold. Tehnology activities are spatial correlated because of personnel flow, information distribution and trade. The increasing technology transfer cost related to geographical distance is the important reason that causes the high concentrations of technology industries. Although literaures related to technology spillovers are abundant, studies on above fields are insufficient and lack appropriate econometric methodology. We estimate the thresholds for technology spillovers with threshold regressions. Based on spatial econometrics and our new methodological development, we analyse the spatial technology correlations and the decling style of spillovers as the geographical distance increases. These researches will give new developments in technology spillover studies.The exact estimation of technology is the basis of technology spillover studies. This paper estimates and compares the three major measurements of technologys, that is, TFP estimated by the Solow surplus, TFP estimated by the DEA Malmquist index. By decomposing the economic growth into three parts of imputs, we find the impacts of the technology on Chinese economic growth are increasin. Before 1997, it is technology efficicency improvement that play important role in economic growth, and after 1997, pure technology changes have stable and positive effects over economic growth. Both technologic and economic activities are geographically localized. The concentration of technology is stronger than that of economy. Both become more concentrative over time and distribute consistently in geography. The lower global spatial correlations of technology compared with economy explain the stronger concentration of technology well. Both technologically advanced areas and economically advanced areas are sticked to the coast area.The results of threshold regression suggest that the human capital has two thresholds: 4.85% and 10.99%, in terms of percentage of labors received higher education. When human capital quality surpasses 4.85%, the negative technology crowding-out effects of FDI halve. When it surpasses 10.99%, negative crowding-out effects of FDI change to positive spillover effects. China as a whole doesn't meet the sign-change threshold, and this doesn't mean that we can't benefit from FDI technology spillovers. Because of regional diaparities and significant inter-provincial technology spillovers, the regions below the threshold can depend on technologically advanced regions above the threshold. Foreign advanced technologies are adopted by advanced regions first, and later they are transferred to the backward regions through inter-proviancial spillovers.In a country with heterogeneous economic and technological characteristics, the inter-provincial technology spillovers are as important as international spillovers caused by FDI. It finds that inter-provincial technology spillovers, that is technology transfer from technologically advanced provinces to less advanced provinces, contributes more than the international technology transfer via FDI for the backward regions. The relationship between the strength of inter-provincial technology spillovers and technology distances is U-shaped with the technology threshold falls outside the upper bound of technology distance, suggesting that technology spillovers takes place more effectively when technology distance is small. Learning by doing and R&D are robust internal approaches for technical progress. R&D also plays a key role in the assimilation of foreign technologies. Inter-provincial technology transfer effects are stronger in the middle and west regions of China than in the east region. In backward areas, the knowledge output elasticities of learning by doing and R&D are larger than those in technologically advanced regions, indicating the possibilities for inter-provincial technological catch-up. In technologically advanced regions, learning by doing, indigenous R&D and technology transfer from FDI all play a significant role in the technical progress of these regions.The spillover effect declining with distance is the major reason for the concentrations of technology and economy. Based on spatial econometrics and Romer's R&D model, we find that the range of 800 km or one to two provinces is the intensive area for technology spillovers. This range gives an applicable benchmark for the segmentation of economic zones with consideration of technology spillovers. Above 800 km, the degree of technology spillovers declines rapidly. The distance at which the amount of spillovers is halved is about 1250 km. The quickly declining spread effects and relative stable Myrdal's backwash effects cause the inequalities of the east and west areas. There is perfect positive linear relationship between innovative output and R&D capital stock. Spatial externalities are transferred spatially by error shocking. The externalities of R&D, human capital flow, competition and corporation of market are the major reasons for innovative spillovers. For balanced development across regions, it is important to strengthen the effects of above factors and facilitate the constructions of information super highway, academic database and technology exchange market.The technology spillover effects of FDI and exporting are industry specific. Without considerring the interaction effects of absorptive factors, it finds that for technology innovation, the negative crowding-out effects of FDI overweigh its positive knowledge production. The innovative efficiency of domestic firms depends on the adequate competition of the industry market and the industry investment of R&D. The industrial sectors with significant FDI spillover effects are those industries that are appropriate for learning by observing or those firms who don't compete with FDI directly as their technology gaps from FDI are so big. Exporting and learning by doing facilitate innovative capacity when the exporting or producing goods are technologically advanced.Because of the migration of the population and the diffusion of knowledge, regional patent data are spatially correlated. The spatial panel data method improves the determination of the model and the correctness of the coefficients. Innovations are directly related to population growth caused by migration. Regions with more immigrated population are more creative. The effects of economic growth on technology progress are robust and somewhat localized. The effects of university education are highly spatial correlated and leave much to be desired..