Asset Securitization Risk Research

The development of asset securitization in China is being in a dilemma called"the thunderclap are big, the raindrop are few", which resulted of the basic reason that the risk control of asset securitization could not be obtained the satisfactory solution. Because the development of asset securitization in China is also one kind of necessity, the risk investigation of asset securitization has the very strong theoretical and practical significance and is worth to pondering earnestly for us.The risk investigation of asset securitization has been experimentally divided into two kinds of patterns which includs the traditional model and the modern one on the foundation of the predecessor in this thesis. The traditional risk investigation of asset securitization is based on the supposition of rational economic man in Classical Economics and on the study of microcosm and individuation primarily, has the characteristic of diversified hypothesis condition and the analysis with more mathematical tool. Along with the progress of financial innovation, the erupting and the worsening subprime-loan crisis in America is the evidence that the traditional risk investigation of asset securitization has been demonstrated having too many insufficiencies. The modern risk investigation of asset securitization proposed by this thesis should be as a kind of supplement to traditional one, which mainly includes the rating risk, the supervision risk and the moral hazard. And the same time it has profited the research techniques from the Institutional Economics, the Behavior Economics, the Financial Ecology and has promoted the risk investigation from the merely technical stratification to the systematical stratification. It has also integrated the more Chinese elements in order hard to build a new risk-controlling-frame adapting the Chinese future economy.This thesis has followed the simple logical process which includs proposing question, analysing question and solving it. Firstly, the thesis reviews the fundamental research of the asset securitization risk and induces two kinds of risk investigation pattern and the manifestation. It also points out that the research emphasis of this thesis is the modern asset securitization risk (mainly includes: rating risk, supervision risk and moral hazard). Secondly, in according to the Chinese situation, this thesis refines the research key which are the rating risk, the supervision risk and the moral hazard of asset securitization in China and elaborates the similar and the difference between domestic and foreign. Thirdly, the thesis analyzes the causes and mechanism of Chinese asset securitization risk from multiple perspectives including historical economic, classical theory of financial risk, the evolution of subprime-loan crisis in America and suggests that the modern risk investigation of asset securitization in China should mainly concentrate in constructing the rating system, building supervision aspects and controlling moral hazard under the present background of whole world financial crisis. Fourthly, this thesis has been carried on multi-disciplinary analyses for the modern risk of asset securitization in China by utilizing the impact analysis of the Institutional Economics, the vicissitude analysis, and the psycho-analysis of the Behavior Economics and so on. After using the gambling model, it proposed the scope and the intensity of government supervision of asset securitization risk in China. It is also obtained that the effective supervision point of government supervisory department is that the supervision punishment is equal to the income obtained of the asset securitization. The supervisory system vicissitude of asset securitization risk in China is a unification of opposites which including the compulsory system vicissitude and the causing system vicissitude that could be transformed mutually under the controlled condition. The path-choice of system vicissitude mainly relies on the interventing intensity from government. Finally, the thesis proposes that it is necessary to construct the early warning mechanism and the emergency mechanism and so on in view of the Chinese present condition.This thesis has some innovation. Firstly, it proposes a new analysis frame of asset securitization risk which divides the investigation of asset securitization risk into a traditional pattern and the modern one. Secondly, it analyzes the reason and forming mechanism of asset securitization risk, and draws a conclusion that the forming key of the asset securitization risk is the wide fluctuation of the interest rate in the short period. Thirdly, it proposes the scope and the intensity of government supervision of asset securitization risk in China by using the gambling model. It is also obtained that the effective supervision point of government supervisory department is that the supervision punishment is equal to the income obtained of the asset securitization. Fourthly, the supervisory system vicissitude of asset securitization risk in China is a unification of opposites which includs the compulsory system vicissitude and the causing system vicissitude. The path-choice of system vicissitude mainly relies on the interventing intensity from the government.