Study Of OPEC Output Conducts With Uncertainty And Its Influences On The Volatilities Of World Oil Prices

As a kind of strategic resource, oil has shown the significance in the development of the world economy. People's attentions recently have been focused on the frequently volatility of world oil prices. Oil prices are decided by the supply and demand relationship according to the basic rules of price-decision. Compared with the oil consumption,the oil supply influences the oil price more for the elasticity of oil demand is less than the elasticity of oil supply in short term. In summary, as the oil exporting organization in a classic monopoly market, OPEC has un-neglectable influences on the volatility of oil prices.The previous studies took OPEC as the absolute monopoly in the world oil market and having the controlling power of oil prices, so the main research methodology is the empirical analysis. Since 1980s', the world oil market structures has changed a lot, for example, OPEC lost the controlling status with its market share deceasing constantly and oil prices were easily swung by many disturbing factors. These disturbing factors intervened in OPEC output conducts and the world oil prices further for their uncertainty in choosing the output strategies. The theory of traditional industrial organization emphasizes the function of market structure and thinks that market structure decides the manufacturers'conducts and finally the market performances; However, the theory of new industrial organization (NIO) transformes the viewpoints to the manufacturers'conducts and analyzes the market equilibrium of non-cooperation with the Game theory, so NIO is a more effective way aiming at the monopoly market. Based on the Theory of Uncertainty and NIO, this paper explained OPEC's output conducts with uncertainty factors by analyzing the production game model from the point of analyzing manufacturer conducts with Game theory and the influences of OPEC output uncertainties on the world oil prices.This paper firstly analyzed the transmission problems from OPEC output uncertainty to oil prices'volatilities. In the long view, OPEC output conducts exerted influences on oil prices. With the consideration of the structural breaks in the long run, this paper demonstrated the dynamic influences of the OPEC output on oil prices. Together with OPEC output announcements, it explained the weakening situation of the influencing power for the existed disturbing factors. Then, based on the ideas of OPEC output uncertainty, this paper analyzed the tramsmission mechanism from OPEC output conducts to oil prices'volatilities to lay a foundation for the game models between OPEC output conducts and the disturbing factors, also the influences on the oil prices of the OPEC output conducts uncertainty. Secondly, the uncertainty of OPEC output comes from three aspects: the endogenesis uncertainty comes from the interior OPEC, and the exogenous uncertainty from non-OPEC output and oil demand. All the three aspects disturbed the exertion of OPEC output's influences on oil prices. We established the game models between OPEC output and the uncertainty factors to analyze the different OPEC output conducts under different output game equilibrium in turn. (1)OPEC members are different in many aspects, such as the oil reserves, output and the economic conditions etc, which caused different members having different production strategies, thus the bargaining happens when the quotas are distributed and the deception emerges when the output quotas are executed. This paper established the bargaining and repeated game models to analyze OPEC's output under uncertain information completeness and Game times; (2) The manufacturers'conducts are interacting in the monopoly market, so Non-OPEC output is very important to interfere with the exertion of OPEC's output power and oil prices. This paper illustrated the uncertainty factors of Non-OPEC output and the output Game models with complete or incomplete information to analyze OPEC output under different game results. And based on the fact of communicating connections between the manufacturers of the monopoly market, this paper introduced a variable to identify the output of opponents; (3) Owing that oil consumers always judge OPEC's remaining capability by observing the output announcements, this paper established the signaling game model to analyze OPEC output conducts under oil consumers'different buying decision. Finally, we made empirical analysis of the influences on the OPEC output uncertainty of the disturbing factors, also the influences on oil prices of OPEC output conducts uncertainty.Based on the Theory of Uncertainty and NIO, this paper analyzed the OPEC output conducts'uncertainty with the disturbances of endogenesis and exogenous factors, further the influences on the volatilities of oil prices, so it enriched the applications of the above two theory, thus it is meaningful in the theoretic aspect; Meanwhile, the all-around output strategies and the corresponding volatilities of oil prices are analyzed to make the paper instructable for the manufacturer's output decisions and also meaningful for oil consumers to formulate strategies to keep away the oil crisis and ensure the oil consumption.