The Summing-up And Patulous Analysis Of Theory And Model Of The Option Game Theory Under Uncertainty

The real option allows a proactive approach to investment decisions in conditions of uncertainty, emphasizes the value of the managerial flexibility under uncertainty. With real option the bases for a modern theory of investment under uncertainty are established. However the problem of investment under uncertainty and competition is demanding a more rigorous framework. No matter in practical or theoretical aspects, real option models should consider a rational strategic interaction between the players, that is, the option exercise of one player can change the real option values of another. In order to solve the uncertainty, the irreversibility and the competitiveness of the investment project, enable the players to have a good time and an optional plan to invest, it's necessary and feasible to joint the real option approach and game theory.The continuous time option game literature was born in the beginning of 1990′s with Smets'dissertation(1993).Discrete time option games started with Smit and Ankum(1993), consummated the option game model further. Afterwards, many scholars have done the supplement researches, but all concentrate in the non- cooperation game. The research of option game theory in our country was only for a few years, and the achievement mainly concentrates in the complete information and the duopoly model, most of them focus in the model application, but not the model expansion and consummation. The research of option game theory in our country now is in the state of cognition, or using simple models to obtain some conclusions, and the theory is also seldom applied in real investment.Based these cognizance, the author introduces the option game theory and model in detail, provides his own viewpoint, develops the models. Firstly, the author introduces the basic inscape, including the uncertainty, option especially the real option, market structure and the game theory ( cooperative and non-cooperative); secondly, the author discuss some problem in the use of game theory model, including stochastic demand curve, the leader and follower's threshold, yield function, and equilibrium possibilities; thirdly, the author summarize and patulous analysis the symmetrical duopoly model under uncertainty, its mainly including the two methods to calculate the follower and leader's value and threshold, educed some important conclusions, patulous analysis the collusion mechanism to use the mixed strategy ; fourthly, the author introduces asymmetrical duopoly model under uncertainty, and use the correlative conclusions in the part 4 to discuss the follower and leader's value and threshold as high cost and low cost, extend the model use exchange rate, citing mixed strategy theorem to explain some questions; finally , the author discusses the option of investment using cooperative game theory.