On Rural Energy Consumption And Energy Policy In China

Based on energy economics, consumer theory, institute evolution theory and behavioral economics, combining with the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, time series analysis and cross-section panel analysis, field research, applying mathematics and statistical models, systematic model and so on, spreading the train of thought of "Stages division- factor analysis-the law recognition-the policy proposals," This dissertation aims to build clear, logical and highly structure to study rural energy consumption.Firstly, it reveals the stages characteristics in rural energy consumption evolution, through studying the temporal and spatial changes in more comprehensive perspective, and examines the affecting factor of the proportion of different energy consumption in total rural energy consumption.Secondly, this dissertation explores the key elements of energy consumption behavior, consumption patterns on the level of the variety and quantity of energy consumption, taking southwest of Shandong, southeast of Hubei, west of Hunan as three case areas.Thirdly, the paper analyzes the overall rural energy consumption trends and the basic law, then, interprets the changes with institute from a longer time scale.Finally, from the direction of macro-development of rural energy, in view of the development of renewable energy production and the individual micro-level energy consumption behavior, the paper bring forward a series of institute advices and Countermeasures to realize the sustainable rural energy consumption.The full paper is divided into eight chapters.Chapterâ…¢summarizes systematically the history of China's rural energy consumption and reveals China's rural energy consumption different stages and characteristics by the meanings of entropy.Chapterâ…£analyzes the affecting factors of rural energy consumption and constructs respective models to test the impact factors intensity of different varieties of energy.Chapterâ…¤studies the different parts of rural energy consumption behavior and its influencing factors change, focusing on two levels of energy number and varieties consumption, and reveals in the dominant factors of rural energy consumption behavior in the choice of varieties and quantity is different.Chapterâ…¥, from the rural energy consumption time-series approach, using correlation dimension and Kolmogorov entropy, estimating chaos - time series neural network model, finds the rural energy consumption in the timing has chaos Phenomenon and interprets the institute reason that rural energy consumption behavior changes in the different stages.Based on the above analysis, Chapterâ…¦,from the perspective of sustainable development, puts forward to achieve sustainable rural energy consumption in the guiding ideology, basic principles and related Countermeasures and suggestions.Chapterâ…§prospects the further research and summarizes the main idea of the paper.This dissertation may be have made the following innovations:(1)Innovation of research perspective. Rural energy consumption has been one of the focues of the academic community attention. On rural energy consumption of existing literature, there are two tendencies, firstly, analyzing a specific energy consumption changes using a single factor ,secondly, optimizing the rural consumption structure on the macro level. The former research is too weak, however, the latter is too broad. This paper combines with the evolution of micro energy consumption behavior and the macro changes of rural energy consumption, establishes a systematic analysis framework of rural energy consumption and institute changes, makes a comprehensive analysis of China's rural energy consumption and institute interpretation.(2) Innovation of research methods. The paper analyzes systematically the rural energy consumption behavior evolution, Comprehensively using linear regression model and Tobit model, introduces the Chaos - neural network time series model in the study of rural energy consumption , combining conventional time series analysis, genetic algorithm and neural network optimization methods, effectively expands the empirical research methods of rural energy consumption, makes up the deficiencies of the traditional linear model in rural energy consumption application(3) This paper obtains a series of valuable conclusions. Firstly, the paper reveals the stages of rural energy consumption from the perspective of evidence. China's rural energy consumption can be divided into three stages. The first stage(before 1980) is the acute shortage of rural energy consumption phase, the second stage (from 1980 to 2001) is the basically meet the rural energy demand stage. The third stage(after 2001) is the diversification of rural energy consumption stage. Secondly, based on macro data and micro data, on the levels of energy number and varieties consumption, the paper empirically studies the affecting factors and impact intensity of rural energy consumption, and reveals in the dominant factors of rural energy consumption behavior in the choice of varieties and quantity is different. Thirdly, the rural energy consumption exists chaotic phenomenon. Rural energy consumption is a multiple causal feedback mechanism and non-linear chaotic system. It is not only by the internal domination of some deterministic laws, but also by the impact of external environment, and can not be forecasted in the long run.