Research On Management Of Demand Flow In Supply Chain Based On The Theory Of Complex System

With the complexity of market and the intensification of competition, integrated supply chain is being recognized and becomes the main ideology in supply chain management. It needs the coordination and cooperation between the node enterprises, an impoertant part-the management of demand flow and share being included. Because of the complication of supply chain and the uncertainty, dynamic of demand, the character of complex system in the management of demand flow is present. It is known that complex system which can reveal the complex mechanism and operation law in complex objects is a forward science in the 21st century. Take demand flow management as subject and take complex system as platform, this paper does the research on demand flow management based on the theory of complex system to reveal the inner operation mechanism and law, which has the value of both theory and practise.Based of the summary of exist results at home and abroad, demand supply management was discussed as follows:Firstly, complexity in the demand flow management system. The system was divided into three subsystem, which is demand collection and demand prediction system, demand process reengineering system and bullwhip effect system. A conclusion was made that demand flow management system belongs to complex system through the the complexity causes and the complex characteristics of the system.Secondly, the model establishment of demand collection and demand prediction. According to the purpose of the prediction, the indexes were chosen for the data collection which shall be satisfy the requirement of continuity and then the data become to time series. After that, the chaos discrimination shall be carried on. If there is no chaos, regression analysis shall be used to the prediction while there is, the theory of weighted one order local domain multi-step prediction shall be used. empirical study was shown to verrify the feasibility of the model. Thirdly, the fractal model and reengineering of demand process. With the comparision of four current information transfer models, integrated transfer model was be choosen to be basic model because of its advantages. Then fractal model was be established, as well as the fractal charicters, fractal reengineering and its meaning were explained in details.Fourthly, the cause and prevention of bullwhip effect. From the angle of complexity, five causes were analysised. It answered the question of why, when, how and what. According to this, the measurements were given to prevent bullwhip effect.At last, countermeasure and suggestion were given to tell how to do a good job in the managemet of demand flow in supply chain.