On The Research Of Bullwhip Effect In Complex Supply-Chain System

With the development of global economy integration process, the firms'manufacture and market mode have changed by the advanced management and technology. Firms have been gradually regarding the competing as part of a supply chain against other supply chains, rather than as a single firm against other individual firms since the 1980s. It brings much new hard work for the supply chain management Supply chain management has been the important subject all over the world. Interesting in the bullwhip effect, the peculiar phenomenon in supply chain management, has steadily increased when it is regard -ed as the major cause of supply chain ineffeiciency. It is important to anlyze the bullwhip effect systematically and comprehensively.Based on the literature research the approach on the bullwhip effect from three perspectives and analyzed: statistic methods, system control theory and chaotic theory. It assumed that the bullwhip effect based on the model of series time AR(1) or ARMA(1,1) and supposed a new methods, named O-S feedback control methods based on system dynamics theory, to support the study of bullwhip effect. Meanwhile, we also introduce the demand nonlinear forecasting methods, based on chaos theory, to decrease the supply chain dynamics. The corresponding control measures to the bullwhip effect are proposed in the last section. The main content and findings in this dissertation are summarized as follows:First, a general literature review relating to bullwhip effect in supply chain management is presented. We analyze the main three methods in the research of bullwhip effect in supply chain management: statistic methods, system control theory and chaotic theory. For each of them, a brief description of the basic content and character is provided. Next, based on the traditional statistic, we use the model of AR(1), ARMA(1,1) serial times to detrude the formula of bullwhip effect in N-echelon and prove the bullwhip effect is exist under the two series model. Moreover, we discusses the influence of model's parameters.Thirdly, we summarize the theory of system control in the research of bullwhip effect and suppose new methods, named O-S feedback control theory, to describe the supply chain net structure. Through controlling the O-S feedback parameter, the influence of bullwhip effect can be alleviated.Fourthly, we systematic introduce chaos theory as the new method to reduce bullwhip effect. We take N-echelon supply chain model as dynamic system and calculate maximal Lyapunov exponent . The result shows the model is chaotic. In the last, the different nonlinear method of demand's forecasting was compare in order to get the accurate forcasting result.