China's Economic Performance In Transition Cost - Benefit Analysis

From the 80's of last century, the former socialist countries abandoned the planned economy system one after another for the market system due to their low economic performance under the planning system. There were more than thirty countries involved in this large scale institution change, including Soviet Union, twelve East European countries, China and Vietnam, whose population occupied around about one forth of the whole world. Different countries varied in their ways, performance and cognition since the transition started. How to assess transition performance in a correct way, so that can help us modify and direct further transition, which will be an important proposition for the transition economics. This article start from the cost-benefit point of view, try to establish the cost-benefit analytic framework thereby assessing China's transition performance in its past thirty years time scientifically.The document studies about economic transition performance both home and abroad deepened the understanding of this issue largely. However, owing to the difference in mission, initial conditions, developmental stages and institutional basis, traditional comparative study method lack the scientific, and some assessment is subjective in devoid of quantized indicators. Meanwhile, market reform cannot be the whole thing in China's transition; use the pace of market reform to measure China's transition must lessen the cognition of transition. Accordingly, after reviewing the existing document studies, a new cost-benefit analytic framework about transition performance will be put forward in this essay. Moreover, it is used to construct the model of performance assessment in order to realize the scientific evaluation of China's economic transition.As a large-scale institutional changes transiting from planned economy to market economy, get wins as well as pay costs. China achieves huge success from its economic transition in the past thirty years. However, those problems were put off, ignored and hidden emerges gradually, which represent as proliferated economic transitional costs and appeals to reformers'attention. In this paper, the author definite the intension of economic transition costs at first, then devise the index system and use the AHP to measure the general index of economic transition costs from 1978 to 2009. Based on the general costs index, the author use HP filter, Fisher optimal division and Exponential Smoothing methods respectively to analysis the fluctuation characters in trend, historical periods of economic transition costs, and forecast economic transition costs in the future years. In the meanwhile, same method used to study the evolving trend of China's economic transition benefit. After obtaining the data both of cost and benefit, this text adopt DEA technique to set up the model of time series DEA and estimate the fluctuation of China's economic transitional performance from 1978 to 2009. Furthermore, a deepen decomposition research on economic transition performance doing after that, and the fluctuation traits represented in a particular way.The empirical studies show that China's transition performance approaching the efficient frontier continuously, which indicates that China has been stepped into a whole new phase-the post-transition age. It is a turning process from subsistence transition pattern which focus on benefit to the develop transition mode which stress on sustainable development. The flag in the post-transition age lies in harmony, construction, integration and aggregation, which have strong feature in constructing social economic development system focus on harmony, common prosperity, people's livelihood and social stability. The problem of transition costs must be solved properly in the post-transition age, at the premise of keeping benefit step into a low cost transition road.To figure out the problem of transition cost, cost control and apportion methods should be used to maintain sustainable performance growth in long run. In this essay, low cost path determinations are set out through the view of cost control and apportion, and theory support is provided to realize social equality and economic sustainable development.Whether the economic costs could be allocated properly will affect the fairness of specific interest groups when they undertake the transition price. Fair cost allocation needs matched institution arrangement to realize. The relation between fairness and efficiency should be disposed rightly when construct the low cost transition path in the post-transition age, which allows more people can enjoy the outcome from economic transition and aimed at increasing civil welfare in polices design.