The Fluctuation, Misalignment Of RMB Exchange Rate And Its Influence On The Export Trade Of Pan-Yangtze River Delta Economic Circle

The main line of this paper is the study of the real efficient exchange rate fluctuations, equilibrium and the related empirical analysis. To start with, this paper reviews the exchange rate theory and related empirical works. Then,3-State-Markov regime-switching characteristic of the RMB real effective exchange rate time series, the time-varying effect of the selected economic base variables on the RMB exchange rate and the exchange rate misalignment process are studies in this paper. After that, this paper investigates the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation to the export trade of Pan-Yangtze River Delta economic circle, the industrial gradient transfer and the regional integration under the appreciation background.The structure of this paper is as follows:Chapter 1 is introduction. It introduces the background, meaning, purpose and framework of this paper.Chapter 2 reviews the main equilibrium exchange rate theory and the payments balance adjustment theory. Chapter 3 is the research reviews related to this paper.Chapter 2 and 3 lay the theoretical and empirical foundations for the following study.3-State-Markov regime-switching model is firstly introduced into AR model to investigate the dynamic path of the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB from 1991 to June 2008 in Chapter 4. According to the transition probability matrix and the smoothing probabilities, three important results are obtained in this chapter. There are: (1) because MS-AR model allows the regime transfers by probabilities, so, it can describe the dynamic path of RMB real effective exchange rate quantitatively; (2) there are obviously three regime states of the path of the REER of RMB, i.e. "over-depreciation" regime, "moderate-appreciation" regime and "appreciation" regime; (3) most of the time, the real effective exchange rate of RMB is in the "moderate-appreciation" regime and "appreciation" regime. So, the exchange rate fluctuations are relatively stable.In chapter 5, state space model is firstly introduced into Behavior Equilibrium Exchange Rate model (BEER). In the selection of variables, this chapter refers to ERER model. Through the measurement equation and the state equation, the time-varying coefficients and exchange rate misalignment degree can be obtained. The main conclusions of this chapter are as following:(1) the RMB exchange rate system reform in 2005 is timely. After that, the main macroeconomic variables and exchange rate ties deepening; (2) the RMB exchange rate misalignment level became lower and the ability of the REER reply to equilibrium value has substantially enhanced recently; (3) there is no significant sign in the fundamentals to indicate the appreciation pressure.Chapter 6 studies the "general trade" and the "processing trade" of the Pan-Yangtze River Delta economic circle using Panel data model and stress testing methods. The results are as follows. Either "processing trade" or "general trade" export, the export sensitivity of Zhejiang province to RMB appreciation is relatively moderate. Probably it is because of the geographical location, rich productivity resources in Zhejiang province. Still, it is worth noting that Anhui province—the major province in the midwest area has showed a good momentum of development in both trade classification. This offers a good opportunity for the integration of Anhui province into the Yangtze River Delta region and the acceptance Anhui Province by the Yangtze River Delta region.Chapter 7 is the conclusion of the whole paper.