Empirical Study Of Rmb Equilibrium Exchange Rate Based On ERER Model, And On The Effect Of Exchange Rate Misalignment To Chinese Export

Theoretical study and practices has shown that in an open economy, if exchange rate has long maintained at a reasonable level, one country's economic development and social stability will be harmed. Now, countries depending much more on international trades so that a reasonable exchange rate is in need. Especially for China at the cusp of exchange rate after 2002, there is the urgent need to study the RMB from China's actual conditions and the impact on the dislocation of equilibrium exchange rate to the economy, and thus improve the current exchange rate system.Drawing on the relevant research results of real equilibrium exchange rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment on the export trade, this paper selects the most appropriate theoretical model and economic indicators, so as to build the China RMB equilibrium exchange rate model more suited to the actual situation. To use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and time series data on the empirical research on China's Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignment and its impact on export trade. Firstly, measure and analyze the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the correlation between the real effective exchange rate and relative basic economic elements; Secondly, estimate the RMB real exchange rate's dislocation level; Thirdly, carry on an empirical study on relationships between RMB real exchange rate misalignment and export trade; At last, based on the conclusion of the study this paper offers some recommendations on the existing policy of RMB Rates. The main conclusions as follows:①The relationship between economic fundamentals and exchange rate: from 1980 to 2007, openness and government expenditure affect the foreign exchange rate fluctuations more significantly, and the short-term impact and long-term in the same direction; foreign exchange reserves'impact on the real effective exchange rate of RMB short-and long-term effects are not significant.②Study on equilibrium exchange rate misalignment and its effects on exports: the overall real exchange rate of RMB has gone through four different levels of overestimation and underestimation:1980-1985 and 1995-2002 was over-estimated; 1986-2002 and 2003-2007 underestimated. Our current stage of the exchange rate is undervalued; The real exchange rate of RMB has increased steadily in the long term expectations.③RMB equilibrium real exchange rate misalignment negatively correlated with the export trade. Larger the displacement of the more obvious inhibition of the export trade, the exchange rate under-estimation is not conducive to export.④Recommendations to improve the RMB exchange rate regime policy: improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, including the weights of the basket currencies and capital flows, combined elements; deepen the foreign exchange market, and increase the transaction subject trading partners and trading; strengthen macro control, regulating the balance of payments, control foreign exchange reserves; adhere to prudent monetary policy, enhance regulatory quality; gradually speed up the process of marketization of interest rates, deepen the reform of the banking system, develop national industry, promote industrial upgrading, and improve the international competitiveness and ability to deal with RMB appreciation, increase awareness of domestic enterprises, risk prevention and risk prevention. .