Research On The Operational Risk Assessment And Early Warning Of Logistics Network

Because of the role of information technology, businesses are in open, comprehensive, complex and network-based operating environment. Through the integration of resources, logistics alliance organizations, virtual organizations and other logistics organizations are formed by combined manufacturing companies, marketing companies, and end-users. In this network, information and resources can be fully shared, and node enterprises developed from "parallel", and "do not intersect" into synergies. Each node enterprise are dynamically restructuring and forming of a number of different types of service organizations together to provide customers with integrated logistics services. Logistics enterprise's operation and management fundamental changes in such an open, free and borderless network of organizations and institutions. Logistics network is closely related to each other, and any one of the problems may spread to other sectors. Therefore, the logistics network risk research based on the network nodes are great significance.As logistics network research relatively new, there is still no uniform definition and understanding about logistics network operation risks. According to the general definition of risk and logistics network, the dissertation define that logistics network of operational risks is the process of logistics networks in operation, due to uncertainties that may cause the actual members of the corporate earnings and the expected return deviations occur, but suffered losses opportunities or possibilities. The main risk is all the participants of logistics network. From the target control point of view, the logistics network operation risks is the possibility that the organization deviation from the intended target. The research of logistics network operation risks focus on risk assessment, early warning and control about logistics network integration operation risks and networking various members'synergistic risks.In the logistics network operation risk assessment section, the dissertation using an interactive artificial intelligence approach to risk assessment. First, the dissertation defines the basic concepts for risk identification, analysis and assessment, methods, and procedures and so on. Second, the dissertation studies the risk assessment process, indicators, risk measurement and other contents about the logistics network operation, on this basis, sets an interactive-based risk assessment model. Finally, the dissertation uses the theory and methods, about logistics network risk assessment, conduct a risk assessment analysis of logistics network operation on Andre logistics Huacheng branch. On the one hand, interactive artificial intelligence approach can greatly improve the assessment speed, The other hand, the assessment results excessive reliance on an expert's personal judgments can be avoided and reduce systemic bias.In the section of logistics network operation risk early-warning, the dissertation uses case-based reasoning (CBR) methods to research early warning of risk. first,the dissertation defines early warning concept, functions, structure and key technologies of logistics network operation risks, On this basis, build artificial neural network model based on case-based reasoning, the structure of early-warning model, learning mechanisms, analysis of algorithms and signal output are studied As well. Finally, the dissertation using theories and methods of logistics network risk early warning, analyzes the early warning risks of logistics network operation on Andre logistics P branch. Artificial neural network using a distributed storage architecture, learning ability, good fault tolerance and strong robustness, it can complete the risk early warning effectively.In the section of risk control of logistics network operation, the dissertation analyzes the causes of logistics network operation risk,COSO risk management framework be introduced to risk control of logistics network operation, establishes a three-dimensional framework and system of risk monitoring, put forwards risk control strategies of logistics network operation.COSO risk management framework concerns the whole risk management of logistics network operation,Can understand and control risks from the target category, constituent elements and the main unit, Balances the interests relationship between the of member enterprises in logistics network, achieves the strategic objectives at different levels and control the risks of logistics network operation effectively.In addition, there are 49 figures and 9 tables in the dissertation. We also have referred to 155 reference documents.