The Analysis Of China's Housing Financial Risk And Its Prevention Mechanism

Housing Finance has been a development highlight in the financial business, along with the house problem as the hotspot which the Chinese people increasingly pay attention to. Generally speaking, the housing finance is safer financial transaction. However, the housing finance has stronger policy meanings, more obviously industrial and regional features. It has special movement rule itself. For example, the risk of housing finance has the feature of accumulation. Once the risk breaks out, it will rapidly spread and a wide financial disturbance will appear. It can endanger the security of the whole financial system.American Subprime Mortgage Crisis is the financial crisis really triggered by the housing finance itself. The Subprime Mortgage Crisis rapidly spread from the United State to each country in the world, from the fictitious economy to the real economy. It finally leads the global economic recession. The spread rate and the destroy degree of crisis go beyond everyone's wildest dreams, which make the people have to renewedly examine the risk of housing finance. In recent years, with the rapid development of real estate market in our country, the bank credit continuously provides the support. The risk also continuously accumulates. The United State and China have a lot similarity in the risk of housing finance. (1) The economy grows rapidly, the excess liquidity drives the house prices overly rise and the bubble has come into being step by step. (2) The credit of real estate from financial organization rapidly expands, the standard of providing loan obviously falls and the hidden danger of risk starts to emerge. (3) The inflation has been aggravated; the repaying pressure of housing loan increases under the background of the more tight monetary policy, and the risk of credit is very high. If we can't make a scientific analysis and judgment to the risk of China's housing finance and it's forming mechanism in time and we can't set up the scientific and reasonable system of risk security, there must be the hidden danger of risk and its accumulation probably. Once this probability translates to the realism, it will have negative effect in the health development of the real estate economy and the development of national economy further. Especially under the background of financial crisis initiated by the American Subprime Mortgage Crisis sweeping the global, there are important theoretic and realism meanings to systematically research the forming and transmitting mechanism, based on which we can put forward the policy proposal of the risk precaution of housing finance.This dissertation analyzes the risk and its origin of China's housing finance on the base of the analysis of the forming and transmitting mechanism of the housing finance. This dissertation deeply discusses the policy of the risk precaution of housing finance from promoting the sustainable development of real estate. This dissertation also sets up the risk precautionary system of China's housing finance, from which we can take some measures in time and avoid the impact of the housing finance risk in China's finance and economy as far as possible. At the same time, this dissertation puts forward the measures of eliminating and translating risk from financial innovation and government intervention. So we can create the favorable environment of housing finance to promote the sound development of China's housing finance.The first chapter is the introduction, which introduce the background and meaning of this dissertation, the actuality and deficiency of the research at home and abroad, the train of thought, the content of research, the innovate and the shortage.The second chapter is the common theory analysis of housing finance risk. The chapter explains the generation mechanism of housing finance risk from the hypothesis of the financial system frangibility, the monetarism, the intrinsic fluctuation of financial asset price, the information economy, the theory of credit cycle, the behavior finance, the theory of rational bubbles and the reflectivity theory of asset price. The chapter explores the conduction mechanism of the housing finance risk through the study of the relationship between the bubbles of real estate, the risk of housing finance, the bank crisis and the financial crisis, which provides the theory foundation for promoting the development of housing finance and the perfection of the risk precaution mechanism of housing finance.The third chapter is the analysis of the actuality and cause of China's housing financial risk. The chapter reviews the cause of China's housing financial risk from the history and actuality, through the analysis of the actuality of China's real estate and housing financial development. The chapter makes the scientific judgments for whether there is China's housing financial risk or not, how much the risk is and the possibility of the risk happening. They provide the practice basis for the establishment of China's risk forecast of housing finance and the system of risk precaution.The forth chapter is the experience and revelation of preventing housing financial risk abroad. The chapter chooses the American Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the Dubai debt crisis to make case study. The chapter analyses the cause of foreign housing financial risk bursting and the precaution policies these countries take. Then the chapter summarizes the experience and lessons of housing financial risk precaution and abstracts the experience which is fit for China's housing financial risk precaution, which provides the reference for the establishment of China's housing financial development and the system of risk precaution.The fifth chapter is the research of the China's housing financial risk precaution system. This chapter is established in the actuality of China's housing financial development and provides the risk forecast indicator system and precaution model which adapts the development of China's housing finance. The outcomes show that although the whole level of China's housing financial risk is not high and has been fallen after 2008 because of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, the level of some cities has been high risk regions. So the position of preventing housing financial risk is not optimistic. The housing financial risk precaution model provided by this dissertation is an innovation in theory and the signal lamp system of risk precaution established by this dissertation is maneuverability in practice.The sixth chapter provides the risk precaution measures of housing finance from the point of financial innovation. Under the background of the American Subprime Mortgage Crisis, this chapter analyses the logic relationship between financial innovation and financial risk and discusses the important function of the financial innovation to transfer and decentralize the housing financial risk. This chapter also provides two kinds of financial innovation which is fit for China's housing financial risk decentralization. They are separately the Mortgage Backed Securitization in the house consumption field and the real estate investment trust in the house investment field. Finally this chapter deeply researches the two kinds of financial innovation which imply the financial risk and the risk precaution. The seventh chapter provides the risk precaution measures of housing finance from the point of government intervention. This chapter analyses the necessity of the government intervening the housing financial market from market failure and government failure and defines the function of government intervening the housing financial market. Through analyzing, comparing and summarizing the patterns and experience of the foreign government intervention in the housing financial market, this chapter aims at the behaviors of China's government intervention in the housing financial market to provide the risk precaution measures of China's housing finance from the point of preventing government failure.The final is the summarization of conclusions of the full text and aims at the deficiency of this dissertation to make a forecast and expectation for the future.