Study Of Tea Enterprise Credit Risk Evaluation And Early Warning In Fujian

China is the world's tea country of origin which is the largest tea-producing country, but not strong country of tea. The main reason the competition of tea enterprises is weak. There many factors to hinder the development of tea enterprises and lack of funding is the key to impede the development of enterprises of tea but the credit of whole tea business is not high which is can not be overlooked. The resent five years of survey data reflect that up to 43.18% of the enterprises have the related contract records, so it is urgent to research the credit of tea enterprises from the respect of bank, it is not only has the relationship between bank credit industry, but also about the entire tea industry's prospects. This study is first based on defining the concept of tea enterprises, credit risk, the concept of rationality, etc, and then does theoretical analysis on the factors affect the Fujian tea company credit risk by selecting the characteristics of tea enterprises owners, tea enterprises, financial institutions, non-formal institutions and macro-environmental factors.The paper collected data and making descriptive statistics analysis and set empirical analysis model through participatory surveys. It does analysis on the corporate credit risk in Fujian tea significant factor though the Probit statistical analysis.And then, we can get the empirical results that characteristics of tea enterprises owners, tea company's own characteristics, financial institutions factors, non-formal financial factors and macroeconomic environment of the years of business owner'management, the time of enterprise operate, business properties, business type, financial status, corporate credit rating, secured forms, informal financing the lending rate, the country's financial and environmental factors take great effect on the Fujian tea business credit risk. Through the measurement of qualitative research analyze Fujian tea significant corporate credit risk factors.Based on the significant factor whict affect the credit risk of Fujian tea enterprises, the paper use the method of AHP to build the principles of corporate credit risk evaluation system according to the principles of comprehensive, focusing on nature, science, relevance, relevance, feasibility, fairness, legitimacy and so on.By rating data, we can see that there are 195 tea companies get the score less 60 in 433 tea companies and credit rating and debt service ability of these companies is in general. And there's fluctuations in operating conditions is very large which has a enormous influence on the ability of enterprises to fulfill the contract, and the risk of default is very high.Therefore, we can see that there is a big credit risk of tea companies, it should have aroused great attention.The paper do testing and evaluation based on historical data to establish credit risk early warning model of tea enterprises. And takes up the five colors of yellow, orange, red, black, to reflect the degree of risk and distinguish risk factors. The five colors represents the" low-risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, high-risk ". Then the paper establish the sub-levels channels management mechanisms.Among them, the green light district said that credit conditions are safe, low-risk. Yellow light district shows credit conditions relatively safe, but there is a smaller probability of risk. Orange light district saids that credit conditions have a certain risk, attention should be paid.Red-light district credit conditions shows that there is a big risk to take corresponding measures. Black light District shows that there are serious risks of credit conditions and urgent measures should be urgent taken. Finally, the paper put some advices from the respect of government to strengthen macro-regulation efforts, tea associations should play its coordinating role, tea enterprises should strengthen their own credit-building measures to improve enterprise credit.