Research On The Early-warning Of Customer's Credit Risk About Chinese Foreign Trade Enterprise

Nowadays, the degree of depending on foreign trade in China's economy has exceeded 60%, and is promoting the percentage. Early warning and controlling the risk in foreign trade is becoming an important problem in enterprise dealing with foreign trade. The credit risk is the main one that should be faced by the development of foreign trade. The thesis aims to build an early warning model of foreign trade credit risk to provide a practical theory tool and technical method.The introduction part brings forth the study background and research objective of the thesis.The second part gives a brief introduction of theoretical basis, that is, the basic contents and the trend of development of foreign trade enterprises'credit and risk early warning theory. The key part is to illustrate the early warning principle.The third part includes from the Chapter Three to Chapter Six, which is also the key part of the thesis. Chapter Three analyzes the clients'early warning system of foreign trade enterprise, among them; it is divided into the analysis of recognizing credit risk, the analysis of evaluating credit risk and the analysis of early warning of credit risk. The mentioned three steps respectively correspond to the design of early warning of credit risk in foreign trade enterprise in Chapter Four. Chapter Five the design of evaluating model on foreign trade enterprise client credit risk is based on BP network, Chapter Six deals with early warning of credit risk foreign trade enterprise client and put forward with the risk control project. From Chapter Four to Chapter Six is the designing part of early warning system. The last part is the conclusion of the whole thesis.The thesis is based on the objective that building an effective early warning system for foreign trade enterprise client credit risk, trying to build a credit index system which is more suitable to the foreign trade enterprise. It combines the major composition analysis with gene analysis, decreases dimension. Under the condition of keeping the information of early warning, it predigests the workload of early warning. In the methods of early warning, the author contrast between the traditional counting early warning model and the artificial intelligence and combine the actuality, he introduced BP artificial nerve network techniques, building early warning of foreign trade enterprise client credit risk. Based on one concrete case as the study object, he makes the integration of theory and practice, aims at the practical condition of the cases, designs the early warning index system of credit risk, early warning model based on BP artificial nerve network techniques, in order to enrich early warning of client credit risk and provide the demonstration evidence.