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How The Crude Oil Price Change Affect Chinese Economy?

Posted on:2011-06-18Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:L L WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360308970354Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The effect of crude oil price to China is different from other market economy country. Because in the early 21st century the important character of the world economy is that bulk commodity prices change rapidly, and China which is a transition economy country implement open policy.Chinese open policy provides the possibility that international oil price change affect Chinese economy, the transformation of Chinese economic reality makes the influence different from other market economy countries.Considering Chinese practical situation, scanning Chinese economy in world and in the connection of production, trade, and finance, this paper makes a reference to the overseas achievement and discusses the effect of crude oil price to Chinese economy.The structure is as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 is the literature review. Chapter 3 is the reason of crude oil price fluctuation. Chapter 4 proposes the assumption of the relations between crude oil price and Chinese economical operation, mainly between crude oil price and national wealth. Chapter 5 is the relations between Chinese economic growth and crude oil price. Chapter 6 is the relations between Chinese price level and crude oil price. Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 is the two sides of the same coin, the analysis results of two chapters are consistent. Chapter 7 is the influence of crude oil price on funds flow between the real economy and virtual economy, and the influence seems to be on funds flow between China and America. Chapters 5-7 are empirical analysis and simulation. Chapter 8 is Conclusion, suggestion, and problems to study.The characteristic of this paper is as fllows:1. The global vision. The reason is the globalization and Chinese open policy, and using it is a shortcut to understand the development of Chinese economy.2. The idea is question-oriented.3. The judgement is based on the data.The innovation is as follows:1. This paper puts forward and answers how the flunctuation of crude oil price cause the transfer of national wealth, and develops the wealth transfer theory.International wealth transfer is a vital problem for China on the condition of open policy and world peace.This paper is the first to tade all factors, such as the production, trade and financial activities, into consideration when the author discuss the influence of crude oil price to international wealth transfer. And in the past people only consider the value change of oil resource.The rising of crude oil price lead to the transfer of wealth by several channels, the paper mainly discusses risk trade, international trade, seigniorage etc.International oil prices rising, Chinese low energy resources price control and export products lacking Pricing Right are combined actions which made wealth transfer possible.2. From seeing the limitation of subject and the difference of energy pricing system between home and abroad, the paper explains why Chinese economic growth, especially export growth, is so rapid in 2002-2008.Chinese economic growth is so remarkable. In 2002-2008, increment speed of Chinese GDP every year was more than 9%,that is more than any year in 1998-2001, and in 2007 the growth was reach to 13%, but in 2002-2008, the growth of United States was lower than 3.6%. How to explain Chinese higher level of GDP?To answer this question, we must understand the Chinese reality, and understand the difference between the reality and the premise of contemporary economic theory and the premise of statistical service theory.To understand Chinese GDP we need have a deep understanding of the reality and the limitations of each subject, and we can't compare it with other country GDP in a simply way. In China even if GDP accounting methods integrate with the international, GDP cannot overcome the effects of its resource pricing system. In the 21st century the largest reality of China is the lower energy pricing system which is the most significant difference in economic system between home and abroad.There are some factors to explain Chinese export growth.one is the differences in energy pricing system between home and abroad, the other is Fed (American Federal Reserve committee) policy and financial regulator that lead to dollar glut and the rising of international bulk commodity price. And they all give cause for the rapid growth of domestic energy-consuming and the price advantage of high energy-consuming export products and high resource-consuming export products.3. The paper finds the reason why Chinese CPI was deflected from EPI for a long time at the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore this paper suggest reforming Chinese pricing system of energy and other resources, such as coordinating petroleum products price at home and abroad etc.In addition, this paper put forward two problems. Firstly, how to coordinate the monetary policy between China and other countries? Secondly, how to transcend derivative capital? Thirdly, how to readjust income distribution when assets price change so rapidly?...
Keywords/Search Tags:Crude Oil Price, Wealth, Economic Growth, GDP, Price Level, Monetary Policy, Movements of Funds, the Real Economy, Virtual Economy, Price Control
PDF Full Text Request
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