| BACKGROUNDThe economic factor is one of the important part which influence dietary patterns and nutritional status. It was reported that when GDP increases from 1000 dollar to 3000 dollar, it is not only the sensitive period of dietary patterns change, but also the best period of conducting nutritional intervention to achieve dietary balance and reasonable nutrition among residents. However, the domestic study about the relationship of the economic factor to dietary patterns and nutritional status is few.OBJECTIVETo study the level of social development secular trends of dietary patterns, nutritional status, physical activity and nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (NR-NCDs) among Chinese residents. To predict the consumption of different food of Chinese adults in 2010 and 2020. And discuss the extent of economic factor to dietary patterns and nutritional status.METHODSThe study was based on the data of China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), a longitudinal project conducted in 1991,1993,1997,2000,2004 and 2006. The study population was the adult residents aged 18 to 60 years, and the sample size is 5085, 6621,6646,6752,5603 and 5263 respectively.Urbanization index was first built up to evaluate the socioeconomic status of different communities in every wave survey.Secondly, the secular trends of dietary patterns, nutritional status, physical activity, nutrition-related non-communicable diseases and nutrients price were described and analyzed among Chinese nine province's urban and rural residents. One more, the consumption of different food of Chinese adults in 2010 and 2020 were predicted using the eleven mathematical models or the trend extrapolation (TE) on the condition of no any intervention.Finally, the factors and the extents of the food consumption were analyzed with two-process model (2PM) and Log-Log Models (L-LM) of econometrics.RESULTSFirstly, from 1991 to 2006 the cereals consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a decreasing trend, it was 324.7g/day,388.2g/day,388.4g/day,469.7g/day respectively to 2006; the beans consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has not large change, it was 20.5g/day,21.1g/day,20.1g/day,19.8g/day respectively to 2006; the vegetable consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 325.5g/day,379.5g/day,318.6g/day,377.3g/day respectively to 2006; the fruit consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 118.7g/day,79.6g/day,49.9g/day,39.7g/day respectively to 2006; the meat consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 113.8g/day,112.4g/day, 101.5g/day,76.5g/day respectively to 2006; the egg consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 40.7g/day,30.1 g/day,35.1 g/day,27.4g/day respectively to 2006; the seafood consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 42.2 g/day,53.5 g/day,37.4 g/day,28.4 g/day respectively to 2006; the milk consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 47.9 g/day,22.8g/day,18.5 g/day,3.7 g/day respectively to 2006; the cooking oil consumption of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 47.3 g/day,42.8 g/day,40.8 g/day,43.5 g/day respectively to 2006.Secondly, the high-quality protein proportion of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 48.6%,42.5%,42.9%,31.3% respectively to 2006; the energy ratio from carbohydrate of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a decreasing trend, it was 49.3%,53.3%,55.7%,60.6% respectively to 2006, the energy ratio from fat of city, suburbs, country town and rural area has a increasing trend, it was 37.7%,33.0%,31.7%,28.0% respectively to2006; the ratio of population of the abnormal energy ratio from carbohydrate increased continually, which was 31.4%,18.6%,12.6%,10.5% respectively to 2006 in four area; the ratio of population of the abnormal energy ratio from fat increased continually, which was 31.4%,18.6%,12.6%,10.5% respectively to 2006 in four area; price of energy increased from 1.1 yuan/Kcal in 1991 to 1.6 yuan/Kcal in 2006; price of protein increased from 3.7 yuan/100g in 1991 to 5.2 yuan/100g in 2006; price of fat decreased from 5.5 yuan/100g in 1991 to 5.3 yuan/100g in 2006.Thirdly, the physical activity levels have decreased among urban and rural residents significantly, resident's MET-hrs/week fell by 32% from 1997 to 2006, and male and female fell by 28% and 37% respectively. In the 15 years, people's MET-hrs of occupational activity fell 40% averagely, and male and female fell by 36% and 47% respectively. The ratio of population who exercises (cycling and walking) over 30 minutes everyday decreased from 46-51% in 1997 to 28-33% in 2006.Fourthly, from 1991 to 2006 male and female average body weight increased 7.5kg and 4.6kg respectively, and male and female BMI all increased continually. In the 15 years, male and female BMI increased 2.0 kg/m2and 1.2 kg/m2 respectively. In 2006, the overweight/obesity rate (BMI>24) between male and female reached 38.5% and 36.0% respectively, it is 2.1 times and 1.7 times in 1991 In 2006, the rate of high blood pressure between male and female reached 23.7% and 18.6% respectively, it is 1.6 times and 1.4 times in 1991 respectively. In 2006, male and female central obesity rate reached 45.6% and 48.6% respectively, it is 2.3 times and 1.7 times in 1991 respectively.Fifthly, the prediction result of cereal food in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 311g/day and 257g/day, suburban is301g/day and 252g/day, county residents is 362 g/day and 314 g/day and Rural residents is 426g/day and 353g/day. The prediction result of fruit food in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 130g/day and 310g/day, suburban is 106g/day and 237g/day, county residents is 54g/day and 139g/day and rural residents is 39g/day and 140g/day. The prediction result of meat food in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 99g/day and 95g/day, suburban is 105g/day and 90g/day, county residents is 107 g/day and 103 g/day and urban residents is 79g/day and 108g/day. The prediction result of seafood in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 47g/day and 63g/day, suburban is 59g/day and 87g/day, county residents is 45g/day and 71 g/day and rural residents is 45g/day and 61 g/day. The prediction result of milk food in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 69g/day and 109g/day, suburban is 44g/day and 103g/day, county residents is 33 g/day and 79 g/day and rural residents is 6g/day and 18g/day. The prediction result of cooking oil in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 45g/day and 50g/day, suburban is 45g/day and 45g/day, county residents is 43 g/day and 47 g/day and rural residents is 45g/day and 55g/day. The prediction result of beans food in 2010 and 2020 is that, citizen is 22g/day and 22g/day, suburban is 21 g/day and 22g/day, county residents is 20 g/day and 21 g/day and rural residents is 19g/day and 18g/day.Sixthly, There's an association between community urbanization index and residents'food consumption and food consumption behavior. The higher the community urbanization index is, the larger the probability of consuming animal food and edible oil will be, so the consumption of animal food and edible oil is large.Seventhly, income increased is the negative effect of cereal consumption, the positive effect of animal foods and cooking oil consumption. In most food groups, income elasticity decreased. From an economic point of view, cereal food has already become the inferior goods in different income people. The fat intake will increase more quick in low income groups with the income increased.Eighthly, because of price effect, there is a complementary and substitute relationship in the different foods. Low income people are sensitive to the change of price. The price has affect the nutrients intake significantly.Ninthly, the marginal propensity to consume foods (MPC) decreases continually and the MPC of pork is the highest in the different foods.ConclusionFirstly, from 1991 to 2006, the diet quality among Chinese urban and rural residents has been improved significantly, but it still has many problems in diet structure and nutritional condition compared with recommended reference-standard from the dietary guidelines for Chinese residents. The decrease of physical activity and increase fat intake has reduced the increasing prevalance of NR-NCDs among Chinese residents.Secondly, the prediction results of future urban and rural residents'food consumption show that the unreasonable phenomenon of cooking oil, meat, beans and milk food consumption is still outstanding.Thirdly, economic factors have affect residents'food consumption significantly. In order to controlling the increasing prevalence of NR-NCDs, we suggest that government should make price intervention measures to control the pork and cooking oil intake.
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