The Design And Development Of Medium And Long-range Weather Forecast Operational System

Meteorological Guarantee becomes more and more important in modern high-technique military operations. In order to improve the accuracy of medium and long-range weather forecasting, the design and development of military meteorology for medium and long-range weather forecast operational system become more significant, so as to give the better service for military operations.According to the demand of the military projection, based on the latest research and technology in weather forecast, combined to database technology, geography information system technology, communication and network technology, and active web page technology, a scheme of military medium and long-range weather forecast operational system has been established in this paper. It include five subsystems:download and communication subsystem, the meteorological information database subsystem, the medium and long-range weather forecasting subsystem, the ensemble forecasting and result display subsystem and the work flow control subsystem. The results are as follows:(1) The stability and efficiency of data download and communication subsystem is the foundation for military meteorology for medium and long-range weather forecast operational system. The designed subsystem realized the function to download and translate the data of T213/T639 numeric prediction products from National Meteorological Center and T63 numeric prediction products from National Climate Center.(2) The designed meteorological information database sub-system provides the function of restoring, sending and analyzing for meteorological information, and includes seven databases:the daily historical database, the auto weather station database, the surface database, the upper-air database, the military weather station database, forecast results and model initial information database.(3) The medium and long-range weather forecasting subsystem has been designed by modeling method. It was made up of five modules, included the "Alternative Methodology" forecasting module, extended-range forecasting module, numerical prediction interpreting modules, similar forecasting module and the dynamic downscaling prediction module. This subsystem is the core of the whole system, and provide 4-15d forecast. (4) The ensemble forecasting and result display subsystem ensemble the result provide by five models in the medium and long-range weather forecasting subsystem and display the final forecast result base on GIS. This style is more intuitive and convenient to forecaster.(5) The work flow control subsystem ensure safe and stable work of military medium and long-range weather forecast operational system, based on firewall and VPN technology.Based on the research mentioned above, the "Military Medium and Long-range Weather Forecast Operational System" has been put into tried operational use at a unit of PLA since December 2010. The dependent examining export give some comment for the system:this system has some fresh idea in integrated designing, reasonable structure and some new weather forecast technology, so it can provided an powerful technique support for further to lift the ability and level of military weather forecasting.