The Vulnerability Analysis Of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems Based On The Inoperability Input-output Model (IIM)

Infrastructure is defined as the material engineering facilities for social productionand living providing public services. Interdependent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) refers tothe material engineering facilities systems which are correlated and affected mutually forsocial production and people’s life to provide public services. With the development ofscience and technology and social economy, many complex systems in our life becomemore and more complicated. These complex systems are unavoidably disturbed byexternal and internal perturbations. In recent years, all kinds of extreme disastrous eventsappear ceaselessly, which impacts on interdependent infrastructure systems greatly, sofurther research on the vulnerability of IIS, and to explore the corresponding control andmanagement strategy are very important.In this dissertation, the perturbations of the Interdependent Infrastructure Systems aredivided into two types: Supply-constrained perturbation and demand-driven perturbation.We analyze the vulnerability of IIS mainly by expanding Inoperability input-output Model(IIM) after unexpected events. We discuss the wave impact of unexpected events,economic loss, recovery process, and the measures of reducing the economic losses and soon. Main contributions of this dissertation are summarized as follows:For IIS, the supply-constrained perturbation is more common. The existingsupply-constrained IIM established by Leung and Haimes cannot be directly applied to thedynamic analysis of supply-constrained perturbation. A supply-constrained dynamicinput-output inoperability model is developed to analyze the ripple effects for the IIS andthis model is based on the dynamic dual input-output model established by Ghosh. Thesupply-constrained DIIM presented in this dissertation has been formulated to model thebehavior of supply-constrained perturbation to analyze the process of ripple effects; Inaddition, the interdependency resilience coefficient and interdependency index arediscussed in the light of supply-constrained DIIM.We discuss the vulnerability of IIS based on the supply-constrained IIM anddemand-driven IIM. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are discussed based on thesupply-constrained perturbation of the IIS, the uncertainty analysis is discussed on the partof the demand-driven perturbation of the IIS; and then we test the validity of both modelsand give their application scope.The uncertainty recovery analysis for the IIS is also conducted. In real life, therecovery of IIS is uncertain, and the IIS evolution mechanism after perturbation is not clear. Based on the demand-driven DIIM, a probability analysis method has been proposedto analyze the recovery for IIS. With these characteristics of unexpected eventsdisturbance, we give the corresponding probability analysis method for IIS. Finally, theMonte Carlo simulation is carried out to verify the correctness of the conclusion.This dissertation provides a theoretical framework for identifying the key sectors ofIIS based on the forward linkage and backward linkage method. At the same time, thevulnerability analysis is discussed by using the field of influence approach and MultiplierProduct Matrix (MPM) approach based on the supply-constrained IIM and demand-drivenIIM. This vulnerability analysis provides a theoretical basis and methodological supportfor emergency management after the unexpected events.