| In recent years, trade and environmental issues are becoming a hot topic in academia. The environmental consequences of trade liberalization in the domestic and international academic, some scholars hold a pessimistic view that the implementation of trade liberalization policies will directly lead to deterioration of the environment; some scholars believe that the environmental effects of trade liberalization in the short term is negative, but over time, trade liberalization to the environment long-term positive impact.For China, the overall impact of free trade of agricultural products on agriculture is better than harm (J. k Huang et al,2005a; Liu Y et al,2009; J. k Huang et al,2005b), promote free trade in line with China’s national interests and long-term interests. In the past few decades, China has made tremendous efforts in the process of promoting free trade of agricultural products, not only in relaxation of the import and export market access, but also adopted a series of measures to mitigate the tariff. During1978-2008, China’s agricultural trade has increased from$6.1billion in1978to$99.21billion in2008, and the average annual growth rate is9.7%. However, made great progress in agricultural foreign trade, and promoted development of the domestic agricultural economy, at the same time, agriculture as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas emissions from the Chinese agricultural production brought about a cause for concern increasingly.At present, the general consensus is the production of Chinese wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other land-intensive agricultural products didn’t have a clear comparative advantage, while the production of vegetables, meat and other labor-intensive agricultural products are with a clear comparative advantage (J. w Liu,2004; J. k Huang et al,2005a; J. k Huang et al,2005b; Liu Y, et al,2009). Performance of reducing the domestic production scale of wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products, expansion of domestic production scale of vegetables, meat and other agricultural products. Due to greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural production process is very different between land-intensive crops and labor-intensive crops, and among of livestock products. Thus, free trade of agricultural products will affect the foreign trade structure of China’s agricultural products, and thus affect the domestic resource configuration and the structure of agricultural production to improve (H. E Zhao,2005; X. J Du et al,1998; J. k Huang et al,1999), and ultimately impact the greenhouse gas emissions of domestic agricultural production in China. So, in recent decades, with deepening of reform and opening up, and trade have been expanding, what changes and trends of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. What affect mechanism of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products in international market, what greenhouse gas emissions effects of the main import and export agricultural production in China. Whether the change of agricultural trade openness will also affect the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production? For answers to these questions will help us to recognize the greenhouse gas emission reduction pressure of agricultural production in China, and to select strategies of reducing the greenhouse gas emission of agricultural production and foreign trade of agricultural products in line with our national conditions, and to achieve harmonious and sustainable development between Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products and agro-ecological environment. Therefore, this study has certain theoretical and practical value.The overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Around this goal, the author on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism, that is agricultural products in international market to the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Firstly, depicts the evolution of trade patterns and structure of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products. Secondly, estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions on the national and sub-regional agricultural production, according to the greenhouse gas emission factors provide by IPCC (2006) and FAO (2004), and the measure of greenhouse gas emissions model. Thirdly, empirical analysis of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products, by learning from Grossman (1991), Chai (2002) and H.Z Li (2010). Finally, empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural trade openness to the greenhouse gas emissions of China’s agricultural production, by improving the econometric Model of economic growth and environmental relations proposed by Grossman&Krueger (1995), introducing the variable of trade openness and agriculture environment, and basing on the inter-provincial panel data.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: 1. Since the1990s, there are a significant change of the trade patterns&structure of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products. Performance:A declining status of the foreign trade in Chinese agricultural products in foreign trade goods in China, foreign exchange earning capacity is significantly diminished. Products structure appeared the situation of mainly exports vegetables, fruits&other labor-intensive agricultural products, and imports cotton, soybeans&other land-intensive agricultural products. Import&export market concentration continue to lower, the market is becoming more rational distribution and diversification. The concentration of import&export trade in the domestic areas is high degree. A shift of the main structure of import&export trade to diversify, the main structure is becoming more rational.2. During1991-2008, the greenhouse gas emissions of China’s agricultural production show an increasing trend and an uneven regional distribution. In particular:Firstly, for farming, the amount of CH4emissions in rice procuction has declined, from9.3144million tons in1991down to9.995million tons in2008; and at the same period the amount of N2O and CO2emissions increased year by year, the amount of N2O emissions from346,700tons in1991rose to487,400tons in2008, the amount of CO2emissions from40,194,800tons in1991to77,858,700tons in2008. Secondly, the amount of CH4and N2O emissions in livestock production showed a "∩" trend. The amount of CH4and N2O emissions respectively from7.6553million tons and353.2thousand tons in1991rose to11,114,300tons and559,300tons in2006. Since then, they were respectively down to9.0074million tons and469,000tons in2008. Thirdly, the structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production shows the shrinking trend of farming but the increasing trend of livestock production. Fourthly, the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has a high regional degree, and the key emissions areas shows a concentration trends to the less developed and Midwest areas in China.3. China’s main import and export of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions effects of the decomposition results are as follows:(1) For the structure effect, during1991-2008, due to the share changes of import&export of agricultural products, total greenhouse gas emission has reduced583,600tons CO2equivalents, indicating that the optimization of foreign trade structure in China’s agricultural products presents a significant negative effect to greenhouse gas emissions.(2) For the technical effect, during1991-2008, due to the technological progress of agricultural production is slow, the exports of Chinese agricultural products has only reduced greenhouse gas emissions900tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the technological progress is not obvious. At the same time period, the imports of Chinese agricultural products less reduced greenhouse gas emissions45,500tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, in overall terms, the Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products accumulated less reduced greenhouse gas emissions44,600tons CO2equivalent, due to the slow pace of technological progress, indicating that China’s foreign trade in agricultural products presents a significant technical positive effect to domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.(3) For the scale effect, during1991-2008, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions has a substantial increase caused by export expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative increased greenhouse gas emissions1.5578million tons CO2equivalent. At the same time, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reducted are also a significant increase caused by the import expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative reduced greenhouse gas emissions2.6076million tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, due to the scale of China’s foreign trade in agricultural products expanded, cumulative net reducted greenhouse gases1.0498million tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the foreign trade of agricultural products presents a significant scale negative effects on domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.4. The trade openness of agricultural products on different varieties of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has different effects. In particular:Firstly, for the amount of CO2emissions in Chinese agricultural production, the agricultural export-oriented rate and import penetration influence is significant. Agricultural export-oriented rate increase will increase domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production, while import penetration enhancement will reduce domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production; but for the CH4and N2O emissions of Chinese agricultural production, the trade openness influence is not significant. Secondly, the relationship of the actual income in Chinese rural area and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in domestic agricultural production showing a inverted "U" shaped, indicating that when the income level is lower in rural areas, in order to increase income, agricultural producers by increasing the scale of agricultural production, increase factors inputs and other means of agricultural production, that is to increase the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc and to expand the production scale of livestock, thereby increasing the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. When the income reaches a certain level, people’s awareness of environmental protection growing, asking the Government to introduce more stringent environmental protection measures to promote agricultural producers to accelerate technological innovation, and to use more low-carbon or environmental friendly agricultural production technologies, so helps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural production.In this study, the possibility innovations are as follows:Firstly, build a calculation model of greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China, and take advantage of the relatively reasonable estimates indicators; preliminary estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production in national and regional of China during1991-2008, providing a reference for future generations. Secondly, Grossman et al (1991) originally proposed the environmental effects of industrial products foreign trade used to the agricultural products foreign trade, and with its theoretical framework from both theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China.The lacks of this study are as follows:Firstly, subject to study conditions restricting could not get a time series data of the greenhouse gas emission factors of crop varieties, which may affect the credibility of calculation results in this article. Secondly, due to lack of the carbon sink factors of crop varieties, didn’t take into the amount of CO2absorbed through photosynthesis, and may overestimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in China’s agricultural production. Thirdly, assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the imported agricultural products and the agricultural products by domestic production are the same; this will also affect the empirical results. |
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