International Carbon Emissions Trading And China’s Certified Emission Reductions Export

Global greenhouse gases that cause global warming and other extreme climate problems put forward the challenge to the sustainable development of human society and economy, and cause public attention from the governments and academia too. In1997the Kyoto Protocol was built in the COP3, which set the greenhouse gas reduction goals of Annex I in the established period and set up three kinds of flexible market mechanism to help to achieve emissions reductions. Since then international carbon emissions trading market has been developing rapidly also large-scale. In the Kyoto protocol framework, China participates in the international carbon emissions trading market mainly through CDM project.International carbon emissions trading seemingly is a kind of deal on scarce and valuable resources, but the initial definition of the property and the transaction price decision are essentially the game process of interests distribution among countries, which will affect the fundamental issues such as future development and well-being in developing countries. In the framework of Kyoto Protocol, the developed countries and the developing countries become major importers and exporters in international carbon trading market. Theoretically international carbon trading price depends on the market equilibrium of supply and demand, but the developed countries control the international carbon trading pricing through the carbon emissions embodied in trade, industrial transferring and building-rules and obtain plenty of transactions net income. International carbon emissions trading is seriously unequal, and what is more worthy of attention is that developing countries are bound to bear the high cost when the developing countries need to undertake reduction duty in the future and the low cost reduction amount is likely to have been exported to the developed countries. In2011Durban climate conference Chinese delegation said China may bear the emission limitation obligations in2020. So it is the inevitable trend that China will bear the mandatory emission reduction obligations in the future. In the face of the rapid development of international carbon trading market, unequal trade and the future mandatory emission limit tasks, China urgently need to strengthen the research of carbon emissions trading and export management international, to avoid low-priced exports leading to carbon resource losing and to avoid the lack of future carbon emissions or the high emission reduction costs affect economic development.This paper tries to construct the research framework combined of theory, demonstration and predict. In the theory analysis part, the paper analyzes international carbon emissions trading logic feasibility, using the marginal cost curve on the basis of the economics basic theory and relevant research literature about international carbon trade, to certificate the necessity for China to participate the global carbon trading market. In the empirical analysis part, the paper analyzes the international carbon trading market development, price decision and the possible results, based on carbon trading development history and theory, to reveal the unfair question of international carbon trading and profit distribution law. In the prediction part, the paper mainly constructs and deduces the theoretical mode and then estimates function or parameter of the determinants of China’s carbon emissions export scale to assess China’s carbon emissions optimal export scale in the first phase.The paper includes several specific points. Firstly the paper introduces the international climate negotiations, reduction pressure of China, international carbon finance markets rising and shortage of the developing countries’ related research to explain research background and significance. Secondly the paper reviews the theoretical basis of international carbon trading and related literature. Thirdly the paper constructs the theory model of marginal abatement cost curves based on the shadow cost to analyze the feasibility of carbon emissions trading through the econometric methods, graphic analysis, function analysis, case analysis and other methods. Fourthly the paper compares the emissions trading system including European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and then summarizes the global CDM project and analyzes transaction process and CDM development of China taking China as an example. Fifthly the paper analyzes the price decision theory and influence factors of international carbon trading, and analyzes the quota-based carbon market price based on EU ETS and the CERs price scissors problem in the project-based carbon market to explain the reason to carbon trading price fall based on embodied carbon emissions. Sixthly the paper analyzes the marginal abatement cost and trading results under the circumstance of independent reduction assuming that the international carbon trading is perfect competition market, and the demand restriction effect under the import restriction and supply monopoly effect under the export alliance assuming that the international carbon trading is not a perfect competition market, and then summarizes the profit distribution rule of international carbon trading and the cause of the unfair distribution of benefits to forecast international carbon trade trend after2012. Seventhly the paper builds a two-stage net value model of emissions reduction and derivates optimal export scale model under three kinds of segmentation situation to confirm the optimal export scale existence, and then finish mathematical analysis and normative analysis about export scale decision factors including the emissions permit price, the total reduction, the discount rate, transaction rate. Eighthly the paper analyzes China’s carbon emissions and calculates the carbon emissions export scale in the first phase, estimating Chinese emissions with the announced emissions reduction targets, China’s marginal abatement cost function, carbon emissions export scale and other function or parameters. Ninthly the paper Sums up the results of the study and puts forward two main policy suggestions, the first of which is to formulate the long-term strategy of carbon emissions export scale management and the second of which is to construct the domestic carbon emissions trading system with market mechanism as the main body.This text forms the research path with background&significance, theory analysis, empirical analysis, prediction analysis and policy suggestions as the core content, and finishes research based on China’s status and strategy participating in international emissions abatement financing transactions, to put forward policy suggestions on China’s carbon financing market.