Assistant Decision-making Support System Of Middle And Long-term Oil Production Engineering Plan

Middle and long-term oil production engineering plan has very important implicationson oil production engineering system and even the entire oilfield development system. It isnot only related to the future development goal and direction of oil production engineeringsystem, and achievement of key technology and oil production index, but also related towhether the oilfield development system will achieve benign and scientific development inthe future. It is an important part of the oil field the development map.In this paper, the research situation of oil production engineering planning at home andabroad are summarized. The measure type, statistical indicators and statistical principles ofmeasure effect are explained, and two kinds of application of the statistical results of measureeffect are analyzed. Based on the statistical results and the unbalanced characteristics ofmeasures’ implementation, the prediction features and types of prediction methods aregeneralized. The traditional prediction method, self organized prediction method, greyprediction method and risk estimation method are proposed, which are applicable to differentpremise. All the single prediction methods are combined to obtain the final predictionconclusion. At the same time, it also gives a specific example of measures effect prediction.According to different criteria, the indexes in measures optimization models areclassified. The targets, constraint conditions and decision variables are analyzed in detail.Three established three determined optimization models are constructed, i.e., the outputmaximization model subject to fixed measures workload and measures cost, costminimization model subject to fixed measure output and measures workload, and benefitmaximization subject to fixed measures workload, measures output and measures cos. Themodeling steps and an application example are given. Considering the uncertainty of someparameters, for example, oil price and increased output per well, two uncertain measuresoptimization models are constructed based on the theory of stochastic optimization, whichinclude stochastic oil price model and stochastic chance-constrained programming model.Correspondingly, an interior point method and an intelligent algorithm are presented. Anapplication example is also given.The decision-making procedure of middle and long-term oil production engineering plan is summarized. The scheme optimization index system is constructed by applyinginterpretative structural model and the Li Ke rating scale comprehensively. All kinds ofevaluation methods are constrasted, and three single evaluation methods, i.e., utility valuemethod, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, grey relational degree analysis,and threecombination evaluation methods, i.e., arithmetic mean value method, driftance method, andcooperation game method, are selected to evaluate oil production engineering plan. Thespecific steps of various methods and a specific example are given.Optimal selection index system of production engineering measures are constructed.Principal component analysis and grey correlation degree methods are unied to get a kind ofprincipal component-grey correlation analysis method, which can be used to select optimalproduction engineering measures. At the same time, in order to improve the intelligent levelof optimal selection of future measures, artificial neural network method is put forward toconstruct knowledge base. The specific steps of these two methods and a specific example aregiven.According to the above theory, system platform design, overall and all parts of thefunctional block diagram of assistant decision-making support of oil production engineeringplan are proposed, and a decision-making support system software is also provided.