| Wind energy as a kind of renewable clean energy is considered to be one of the new energies with a bright prospect for development. The development and utilization of the rich wind energy resource in the coastal zones in Jiangsu province has and would continue to have bright further. The future studies will concentrate on how to improve evaluation methods for wind energy resources, how to analyze wind characteristic and the largest wind energy content, how to improved wind resource utilization rates, how to improve security system for prediction of wind power and how to ensure the secure operation of large wind farm. In this paper, based on homogenization test and correction to the historical data, situation and characteristic of wind energy power in the representative region along the coast and lake in Jiangsu province has been deeply studied by means of statistical analysis and numerical simulation, and the difference in wind characteristic under different underlaying surface were also analyzed. On the base of main distribution characteristics and intensity of meteorological disasters in Jiangsu province, Preliminary analysis of advantageous and disadvantageous for meteorological impact and ecological impact in development and utilization of the wind energy resource were made. This study which have important scientific interest and actual using value provide technology-based support and comprehensive consideration for the development and utilization of the wind energy resource and its sustainable utilization in area along the coast and lake in Jiangsu province. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The findings suggest that when wind speed serial were examined by the method of SNHT, moving t-test technique, E-P alone, the omission of change-Point, misjudgment of change-point and more change-points appeared respectively. It indicated that the above methods used alone are not trivially suitable for homogenization test of wind speed serial. In contrast, Integrating moving t-test technique and SNHT method for homogenization test will give a better result. The above results indicated that the combination of moving t-test technique and SNHT method is the most suitable method for homogenization test of wind speed serial from meteorological station.(2) Base on the data from wind-tower, the difference in wind characteristic under different underlaying surface was also studied. The results showed that wind speed and wind power density in coastal area is larger, decreasing to inland. The monthly wind speed in offshore area, coastal area and the area along the lake vary identically, with the largest wind speed in spring and the lowest in early autumn. The variation characteristics of daily wind speed and vertical distribution had some difference in offshore area, coastal area and the area along the lake, the daily variation of wind speed in offshore area, coastal area lag behind that in inland area along the lake. What’s more, the change of wind speed in upper level was later than that in low level by 1-2 hour, the difference of wind speed between different levels in daylight was obviously smaller than that in night, and this phenomena was especially noticeable in spring; the predominant wind direction in different areas had obvious difference. The lake-land wind in Hongzhe Lake area has obvious features, which is in favor of the increment of wind power in this area. The intensity of turbulence in low level in offshore area is of the order of 10-2 degrees, which is lower than that in coastal area and the inland along the Hongzhe lake. Simultaneously, the intensity of turbulence become smaller as the height increased, and turbulence can be inhibited as the wind speed increased.(3) Using WRF model, we have simulated the characteristics of the wind field and vertical wind. By comparing the simulated and measured data, the simulation errors in all stations are less than 15%. Among them, the simulation error of Dongtai, Rudong in January is only 5%. It means that the simulated values have good agreement with the measured values, and the model has a strong capability in numerical simulation of wind energy resources which is particularly well-suited for Jiangsu Province which has various wind energy resource on the different underlaying surface (sea, land, lake)(4) The characteristics of the local wind field and the lake-land wind in Hongze Lake region was revealed using WRF model. The wind speed is parallel to the shore with zonal distribution. The wind speed in lake area is higher than that in land, and the most obvious variation of wind speed appeared along the shore. Meanwhile, with the increase in height, the wind speed difference between lakes and land was significantly reduced. The thickness of the lake-land wind circulation is about lkm. In addition, descending motions of air above the lake was dominant in daylight, and ascending motions above the land. At night, it was opposite.(5) Wind energy resource has a significant seasonal variation in Jiangsu Province: the most abundant wind resources appear in spring, winter comes second, wind resources in autumn is relatively poor. The wind resources have significant regional differences in Jiangsu Province. The beaches in coast area are rich in wind power. The coastal areas, Taihu Lake, Hongze Lake, Gaoyou Lake belong to relatively rich region. The simulated total reserve of wind energy in Jiangsu Province is 81060.75MW. It is higher than the result obtained from weather station data, and is closer to the true state of wind energy resource reserves.(6) Based on WRF model, the comparative analysis of the observe data and simulation results shows that the correlation coefficient is about 0.59, the root mean square error is 2.98m/s and the relative error is 38.5%. Meanwhile, the deviation of dominant wind direction does not exceed the 45°. The above results indicated that the model basically reflect the actual wind field and the dominant wind direction in the region. The technology of forecasting is an important protection technology for the sustainable use of wind power and power network dispatching.(7) We have identified the potential risks of major meteorological disasters and ecological adaptation in wind energy development and utilization process, and provide comprehensive consideration for the selection and development of wind farm site and its sustainable utilization. |
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