Research On Collision Risk Modeling Of Air Traffic

With the development of civil aviation, the quantity of air traffic is increasing very fast whichmakes the air traffic transportation congested in the limited airspace and that will lead to more seriousflight conflicts. In order to improve the utilization of airspace and ensure the safety of airspace at thesame time, the airspace planners tend to plan the airways and airspace structures, and yet collision riskestimation is a very important factor in the process of planning and is of broad application prospectsin the field of airspace planning. In this paper, some theories and modeling methods of collision riskmodel of air traffic are researched and discussed based on the actual needs of airspace planning.In the process of research, by reviewing and analyzing the related research results from home andbroad, the airspace collision risk models are established based on the probability theory. The collisionrisk is calculated and analyzed and some problems of airspace collision risk models are researchedbased on the methods including mathematical analysis method, regression analysis method,quantitative analysis method, and so on. A method to establish collision risk models of air traffic isgiven and related data of traffic parameters can be input to the model to analyze the influences ofrelated parameters on the collision risk. That will provide the methods and analysis basis of collisionrisk estimation for airspace planners to pick out the suitable planning.The primary contents are as follows:The method to analyze the collision risk based on the arrival time interval is proposed. In thispaper by virtue of the researches of the existing model the collision risk model based on arrival timeinterval is given when the aircraft are flying with the same speed. By using of the quantitative analysismethod and comparative analysis method, the calculation result acquired by the model proposed inthe article is compared with the calculation result acquired by the existing model. The difference incalculation results between the collision risk model proposed in the article and the existing collisionrisk model is illustrated and the rationality and novelty of the proposed model in this article is shown.The collision risk model on identical airway is researched with arrival time interval, the flow rateand the speeds of aircraft, the collision risk model of identical airway is proposed and by using theproposed collision risk model in this paper the influences of flight time interval, speed error,minimum time interval, and so on, on the collision risk can be analyzed, and the collision risk whenthe speeds of the leading aircraft and the tailing aircraft are different can be estimated. Those providethe collision risk estimation method for the set of minimum time interval on the flight segments in theprocess of airspace planning, meanwhile, the means to research the collision risk when aircraft are flying with the different speeds on the flight segment.The collision risk model around intersection of airways and the collision risk model aroundturning point of airway are researched. In order to research the collision risk around intersection ofairways, the angular difference between flight tracks is used to process the aircraft positioncoordinates so that the collision probability under study can be discussed by the means of the identicalairway, and the collision risk model around intersection of airways is proposed. In the study of thecollision risk between different flight segments, the angular difference between flight tracks is used toprocess the position coordinates of aircraft. By using the collision risk model proposed the collisionrisk of flight segment with intersection can be estimated, and the variable trends of collision risk canbe analyzed when the position of intersection, the size of intersection angle, the vertical separation atthe intersection and the size of turning point change.The collision risk models on the identical flight track and around the intersection of the air-routein terminal area airspace are researched. In view of the existing collision risk models are apt to thesituations that aircraft fly with invariable speed on the airway, the collision risk models when theflight altitudes and speeds vary with time in terminal area airspace are proposed according to thecharacterization that the aircraft flies with the variable altitudes and variable speeds based on themodeling methods and ideas of the airways. The method to calculate and analyze the collision riskwhen aircraft flies with variable altitudes and variable speeds is given.By using the proposed collision risk models, the collision risk when aircraft fly with the variablealtitudes and the variable speeds in the terminal area airspace can be estimated and the influences ofrelative parameters on the collision can be analyzed. The purpose is to characterize the collision riskwhen the flight altitudes and flight speeds change and provide a thought for calculating the collisionrisk in terminal area airspace.