Research On Airline Abnormal Flight Adjustment Optimization

With the rapid development of my country’s civil aviation industry,and the demand for flight traffic continued to increase.Airlines arranged for each aircraft to execute multiple consecutive flight plans every day to maximize the use of aircraft,crew and other resources to meet the needs of Shipping needs and earn more.However,because the flights in the flight string share the same aircraft,it also brings more complex delay problems.The flight delay is no longer a single delay,but may also propagate the delay along the flight string,affecting related flights and airports and causing a wider range.delay.In order to adjust the flight delay in advance,after analyzing the factors of flight delay and the spillover delay,this thesis predicts the delay of the flights in the flight train,and then adjusts the flight schedule and changes the planned transit slack time to reduce the spillover delay.Control the spread of contagion delays in flight trains.The main research work of this thesis is as follows:First,use the collected historical flight operation data of an airline to establish a Bayesian network model of the flight series,visualize the operation data of the flight series through the NETICA software,simulate the process of flight delay propagation,analyze the spread delay,and find out Factors affecting flight departure delays in flight trains,draw relevant conclusions,and provide theoretical basis for flight delay prediction and flight plan adjustment in the following.Secondly,based on the analysis of the above flight delay factors,determine the delay factors affecting flight departure,and establish a Bayesian network prediction model for non-first flights that considers the delayed departure flight.Combined with the actual operation data,the prediction results and predicted accuracy.In addition to the non-first flight,the flights in the flight string also have the first flight,but since the first flight is not affected by delays,the weighted Markov chain model is used to predict the departure delay of the first flight,and combined with the actual operation case,the predicted delay level is obtained.The results provide decision support for the adjustment of the transit slack time in the following.Finally,according to the flight delay prediction,the flight plan of the delayed flight is adjusted in advance,and the minimum concomitant delay in the flight sequence is used as the objective function.To achieve the purpose of adjusting the slack time for passing stations,and use IBM ILOG CPLEX,a software commonly used in operations research to solve optimization problems,to solve the example,and obtain the result of delay that can be reduced after adjustment.The research of this paper uses real data,models and software for simulation analysis and calculation,and adjusts the delayed flight plan in advance on the basis of flight delay prediction.,which can provide certain thinking and theoretical support for airlines,and has important scientific and practical significance for improving the normal rate of flights.