Research On Disaster Risk Evaluation And Emergency Rescue Strategy Of Railway

The most important part of Railway Emergency Management is to strengthen the work of accident prevention and preparedness.Risk evaluation and resources strategy are the part of emergency management before the accident. Based on the in-depth analysis of the railway causal factors of disaster, the method of disaster risk evaluation is put forward in this paper, and the result of railway’s risk degree and probability can be gained. After that, the model of railway rescue resources optimization allocation is build, and the solve algorithm and application method are put forward. The problems including analysis, abstract, modeling, solving and application of railway risk evaluation and resources allocation problems have been settled through survey, questionnaire, literature review and simulation in this paper. The main research works are as follows:1. This paper deeply analyzed the risk assessment and resource allocation of domestic and foreign countries. According to the characteristics of the railway emergency management work, based on the railway risk assessment, this paper proposed scientific and rational ideas to configure the railway rescue resources. Combining with the actual situation of China’s railway system, this paper analyzed the risk of the causal factors of the rail disasters.2. Through analyzing mechanism of railway disasters occur, development and evolution, the event propagation characteristics, influence range, disaster evolution and process relationship of the emergency support are studied. This paper analyzed the key elements and process of the emergency rescue, and studied how to combine the risk evaluation and resources allocation with management strategy for the railway.3. Based on the four aspects of human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, management factors, this paper analyzed the railway causal factors, presented the analytic hierarchy process of trapezoidal fuzzy number, and established risk assessment system of the railway disaster.4. The relationship between type and number of railway rescue resource with accident severity is put forward after the in-depth analysis of the railway rescue resource type. It supported the idea that different degree of risk needed different type and number of rescue resource. Then the multi-object model of railway rescue resource allocation is built based on setting covering model. This model grounded on the result of railway risk evaluation, the location and the degree of railway risk. The ant colony algorithm is employed to figure out the model.5. The railway risk evaluation and rescue resource allocation model is applied in some Railway Bureau based on the result of historical statistics of emergencies and disasters, and the key technologies of decision support system and application of platform are explored.