Research On Travel Time Reliability Of Urban Road Network Under Restriction Of Traffic Information

As the products of ITS have been gradually put on the market, the presence of real-time traffic information has changed the road network users’ways of making a trip essentially. On one hand, real-time information in trip can fortify the prediction of the network state, and also can influence these users’real-time travel decision and on the other hand, the accumulation of travel experience and formation of travel custom may vary under information environment. The aggregation of travel behaviors under the influence of information is the main cause of time-dependent stochasticity of road network performance. In order to relieve the negative effect of stochasticity on travel quality, the comprehensive analysis of both travel behavior’s micro mechanism under information restriction and its attribution for stability of road network performance are quite necessary.The study of travel behavior under information environment is the milestone for other transportation problems. Generally, the existing travel behavior studies have focused on some particular decision stage (e.g. route choice), and assume that users have the complete network information to make rational decisions (with complete ignorance of mental factors). This thesis focuses on whole pack of travel decision problem under information restriction. Based on the classification of time dimension into analysis time and reference time, this thesis tempts to integrate psychology, behavior into time-dependent dynamic analysis, and tries to establish analysis model for travel behavior with information restriction within the framework of incomplete rationality. Then, from the perspective of travelers, time-dependent travel time reliability is proposed, and the interacting relationship of users’dynamic choice and road network macro performance, namely, a relevant problem of road network time-dependent reliability under information restriction is also studied.Firstly, this thesis summarizess the research status of both travel behavior and travel time reliability, points out the problems and shortcomings in the existing thesis es, and then clarifies the research content and the technical routes; Based on that, the thesis analyzes the cause of traffic flow character-time-dependent stochasticity-under the information environment:describing time-dependent stochasticity character both in supply and demand on the network, introducing behavior analysis theory into analyzing random influencing factors in decision-making and demonstrating the feasibility that time-dependent probability distribution can be used to study the contradiction between dynamic supply-demand of road network.Secondly, the constraint mechanism caused by information in travel decision-making has been researched. For the urban road network system is a complex systems which involved the participation of mankind,this thesis introduces cognitive psychology theory into analyzing traveler’s psychological process in decision-making, then uses fuzzy mathematics to approximate traveler’s recognition mechanism, builds prototype matching model under the restriction of multi-source information, and calibrates the parameters in prototype matching model in multi-source information environment built by computer simulation technology.Thirdly, the thesis analyzes systematically travel behavior detailing travel stages and mining the essence of choosing phenomenon. Suitable method has been selected to construct decision-making model according to vary choice behavior characteristics. The thesis introduces cognitive structure theory to divide reasonably travel stages and determine their choice behavior order, then analyzes the essence of choosing phenomenon and established choosing model with different method matching with different stages and choosing characteristics. At the first step, the applicability of latent class model and state transition model are compared and a pre-trip travel mode choice model which can distinguish the categories of travelers was established, then a preference route choice model based on the cognitive structure adaption theory has been constructed, and at the same time, the planned departure-time choice model with prospect theory has been set up; on these basis, the travel mode & route change model has been built with the consideration of traffic information restriction and travels’ incomplete rationality characteristics, and the relationship between the reliability of drivers’safety behaviors and time-dependent supply of urban road network was analyzed, either.Fourthly, the algorithm of travel time on time-varying routes was proposed based on fixed point theory, a time-dependent stochastic assignment model of traffic flow on urban road network has been constructed under the principle of stochastic dynamic user-optimal, which is based on the hypothesis of reasonable behavior research conclusions. The research above defines the reliability of time-dependent travel time on urban road network further and designes corresponding algorithms.Finally, the results, which are the path flow evolution track, travel time and travel time reliability changing process of time-dependent stochastic road network, under information restriction are comparing with the results without information constraint. The conclusion verifies that real-time traffic information, in a certain extent, is contribute to travel effectiveness enhancement.