Research On Risk Management Of Key Technology For Engineering Maintenance System And System Realization

Safety is the key to airlines. Accelerating the aviation safety management system(SMS) development, and improving the level of service is an important challenges facing the airlines. Risk management as the core and critical part of the SMS,palys a crucial role. The aircraft maintenance system as one of the three main subsystems of the airlines, its risk management is a critical, complex systems engineering.In recent years,the global civil aviation industry showing booming trend,China’s civil aviation fleet has to enter the world’s second largest aviation transport fleet, the traditional " post-management " approach paying more attention to risk management,but less to practice, can not effectively reduce the level of aviation safety risk with the rapid development of the industry.Business Continuity Management(Business Continuity Management, BCM) is an emerging enterprise risk management process, it is intended to emphasize control and prevention of accidents in advance and immediate disaster response, which is is consistent with the SMS that proposes "safe prevention first ". Meanwhile, Civil Aviation Air Traffic Control in May 2011 in the "civil air traffic management safety management system instruction manual(third edition)" stressed the "China Aviation pipe running units shall establish contingency plans and coordinate emergency plans related units to achieve normal operation and mutual conversion between emergency situation". Therefore, to carry out prevention based safety risk assessments methods and emergency drill is an urgent work. In this thesis, based on business continuity management system(BCMS) theory of risk management processes, the civil aircraft maintenance and safety management risk assessment and application of technology are studied, respectively, covering five key areas of risk management such as aircraft maintenance system project initiation and management, business impact analysis, risk assessment, safety risk control and emergency plans simulation, Finally the aircraft maintenance safety risk assessment and decision support systems is developped. The main research contents and results of this thesis are summarized as follows :(1) Firstly, through the business impact analysis the flight safety and maintenance of quality management is determined to be the two key features to ensure the aircraft maintenance system. Through a comprehensive analysis of historical documents and questionnaire method to determine the risk sources of the airline ’s aircraft maintenance system, and to determine the underlying factors on the basis of all sources of risk identification, a clear affiliation between the factors.(2) The research for reliability of quantitative method. Since the human factor plays an important role in aircraft maintenance, the human factors engineering theory of quantitative research methods is adapted for personnel reliability calculations in aviation maintenance, the successful use of likelihood index method is used to determine the initial error rate of maintenance personnel, according to the method of maintenance error decision maintenance error category in the classification form factor to determine the value of human error, and ultimately get people to quantify the value of reliability is a breakthrough in the traditional qualitative analysis,for analysis, forecasting, reduce and prevent maintenance errors aviation maintenance personnel is important.(3) The research on safety risk assessment technology. Taking into account the impact of aircraft maintenance system of many complex and interrelated factors with doping characteristics between qualitative and quantitative factors,the AHP method is used to determine the index weight respectively using the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and gray system theory to quantify qualitative factors. Suited to deal with the problem of uncertainty intuitive and the advantage to representing a causal relationship between indicators of expression, the Bayesian networks is used to complete a comprehensive evaluation model. Based on airline historical data the Bayesian network parametersand conditional probability table are obtained, The Bayesian network software Netica is used to establish a security risk assessment model, and complete a variety of probabilistic computation, and the integration of the advantages of both methods improves the effectiveness and accuracy of risk assessment. The risk assessment approach can also be extended to other similar risk assessment of complex systems.(4) In view of the present risk analysis research lack of prospective prediction, forecasting of future safety situation mostly referring to historical experience,on the basis of Bayesian network integrated assessment the Kalman filter is used to predict the probability of occurrence of a security event. Real-time monitoring of the security situation in aircraft maintenance systems and effective observation aircraft maintenance system of key indicators affecting the security situation, the use of indicators based on sensitivity analysis and management of real-time monitoring of the airline warned of the risk of BN,providing decision support to reduce riskand control risk.(5) Consider the work of civil aviation emergency plan of our country stays in theory research, preparation of plans mostly dependent on maintenance experience,emergency drills or exercises are traditionally field-based, The Agent based technology as low-level support is proposed for simulation exercises contingency plans,matching the existing contingency plans of airlines, to achieve mutual conversion between normal operation and in emergency situations.Taking into account the airline has accumulated a wealth of maintenance cases, this thesis will combine case-based reasoning and multiAgent technology,for aircraft maintenance system contingency plans. The whole system is composed of 10 Multi-Agent Agent, including aircraft Agent, MCC Center Agent, bases Centre Agent, Production Support Agent, vehicles Agent, Technical Support Agent and Case Management Agent. The typical case is selected for emergency plans simulation to improve emergency response capacity of the aircraft maintenance system, aircraft maintenance efficiency and risk management of airline.(6) Design and develop airline maintenance safety risk assessment and decision support system based on B/S Architecture. Use Netica-J API software JAVA library to complete a comprehensive assessment based on Bayesian network through application examples, this system proved correct assessment rate, high reliability, rapid response time to assess the characteristics. Software system after two years operation of an airline, this system proved correct assessment rate, high reliability, rapid response time to assess the characteristics of the system design for the airline aircraft maintenance safety assessment provides a practical value.