Research Of Urban Buried Gas Pipeline System Risk

The thesis mainly research the first put into use the urban buried gas pipelines in city, because of corrosion, the third part damage etc, it made the pipelines having serious security problems. By constructing a set of risk evaluation indexs system, Established and prediction model of risk assessment for the system characteristics, putting forword three dimensional evaluation of pipeline accident risk model, building a new model emergency rescue system, using the pan weighted networks principle combined with the wide safety management,establish a macro-micro balance multi level universal safety management model. It solve the safety problems for the pipeline, and well control the potentials risk.(1) Building a set index for risk assessment for the urban buried gas pipeline. Overcoming the shortcomings of the system risk evaluation index system in the existing literature,build 4 one level indexs with corrosion influence, outside destroy, operations management and safety management,16 two level indexs,54 three level index. It make the result more accuracy for the urban buried gas pipeline system risk assessment by means of a set of wide to the edge, the deep end indexs and provide a more scientific basis for the safe production guiding enterprises.(2) SPA is a good revalation method for resolve certain and uncertain information, but it is some aspects in concept. So thesis give the PSPA method and related concepts are proposed, mainly including PSPP, PSPIP, PSPAP, and PSPOP. At the same time, madding the SPP to pan grade, PSPA theory mending deficiency of SPA for "Ignore the different characteristics of urban buried gas pipeline system hazard". PSPP solve the problem of disregards c=0, overcome distortion and the contradict between judgment result andgrading in using of set pair state.(3) The urban buried gas pipeline system is a complex system for dynamic at every time. The thesis provide a new method for urban buried gas pipeline system danger,that is a combination the SPA and Markov chain, using Markov’s ergodicity, establishing a set of evaluation model with state evaluation and forecast analysis based on the pipelines characteristics., It put dynamic change and forecast the future safety tendency.The method mend existingassesment method deficiency.(4) Dsicussion the three dynamic risk evaluation method of urban buried gas pipeline and giving three dimensional (3D) spaces contour plane for risk filed. Every risk is not exist independently in spce any point for the risk system fault,and it’s big or small don’t simply add together. For the urban buried gas pipeline system the thesis giving the evaluation model for the three dimensional (3D) risk field, and using contour line concept,give a three dimensional (3D) spaces contou plane for risk filed. This firstly try in order to put forward a new research thinking for different risk’s spreading and overlying.(5) Building a new emergency management system for gas group.With the actual system the thesis build broad sense and the narrow sense combination PDCA with interior circle for running and management mechanism, emergency pre-arranged planning,law,technology support and Logistic support four part for outside circle.The whole system interrelationship for each other, it not only reflect interaction in every essential factors,but also reflect different grade essential factors hierarchical relationship.The PDCA circle is continuous improvement by continuous risecircle itself, so relizing more scientific and easier operation.(6) The urban buried gas pipeline system is a very complex system. Among the factors influencing the system security can be independent, can be related to each other,in certain conditions and forms of interconnection, mutual conversion, transconductance,alternate,mutual grams. Based on the research object’s complexity,using pan weighted field, pan weighted networks of pan system theory,combined with the concept of wide safety management,build multi-level and three dimension man-machine-environment pan safety management model, it provide systematization and effective way for safety management in enterprises.