| China’s proverb "consider the past, and you shall know the future", which is the evolution’s research aim. History is a mirror. When you look it back, you can know the rise and fall of past, and then get the success or failure of today. Due to the different from economic and social development processes, there are different evolution processes of world rail freight development. However, the rail freight development appear a basic similar evolutionary trajectory with the development of economy and society. Therefore, two important questions are worth thinking for China railway researchers. The first is whether China’s future of rail freight will face with the same dilemma as the West or not. The second is whether China’s future of rail freight will appear the similar evolution rule as the West or not. Mechanism research is a scientific analysis method to find out research object’s development characteristics on the basis of internal and external reason analysis. The mechanism research of rail freight development evolution is an effective solution to find the answers of the imbalance problem between fast degeneration of transport demand and slow degeneration of rail freight supply. However, the research on the evolutionary mechanism of rail freight development have greatly lagged behind the development of rail freight at present. Therefore, it is imperative to study systematically the evolution mechanism of rail freight development. This paper pays more attention on both theoretical research and practical analysis for the life cycle characteristics, regional space features and operation mechanism. These theoretical research and practical analysis provide the theory support and empirical basis to guarantee the sustainability of the development of China’s rail freight. Thorough research is carried on for the evolution mechanism of rail freight development as follows:1. On the basis of literature review and deductive reasoning, the evolution mechanism of rail freight development were explained, include:established a metaphor relationship between biological evolution and the evolution of rail freight, explained the concept of rail freight evolution and rail freight evolution mechanism; explained the scope of the study based on the engineering evolutionary theory; explained the rail freight system and the system order parameter based on the system theory; explained the operating system structural model of the evolution impact mechanism of rail freight development based on the transport demand and supply theory.2. From the perspective of the internal mechanism study, the evolution rule and characteristics of rail freight development evolution based on the time scale were studied. First, the study curve of rail freight development evolution was fitting analysised by using a polynomial function, identifyed the growth curve characteristics of China’s rail freight development evolution. Then, the growth curve theory was transplanted to analyze the rule characteristics of the rail freight development evolution with improved algorithm. According to the maximum membership degree principle of adjust goodness of fit, designed a algorithm of growth curve model based on the adjust goodness of fit. At last, the algorithm was applied to divide the life cycle of China’s rail freight development evolution, and to identify the growth curve of each life cycle forms in China. These results should quantitatively analyze the rule and characteristics of China’s rail freight development evolution.3. From the perspective of the internal mechanism study, the regional spatial characteristics of rail freight development evolution were studied based on the spatial scale. First, space cell fusion algorithm was designed from the perspective of spatial proximity location and related transport links. The algorithm could analyze spatial region distribution characteristics, and differentiate the spatial region scope of rail freight in China. Then, the analysis between transport links and freight characteristics in different regions could obtain the regional function orientation and freight channel development direction in the freight evolution. At last, the evolution trend of the spatial region in railway were obtained from the economic influences.4. From the perspective of the external mechanism study, the cause mechanism of rail freight development evolution were studied based on dynamic mechanism and supporting mechanism in theory research and practice analysis. First, a method of grey correlation based on the method of combined resolution coefficient was established for extract the main indicators of dynamic mechanism, combine the dynamic mechanism, industrialization stage theory, and transport evolution theory, this paper designed the theory method and analysis process of a dynamic mechanism operation. The use of such method and process to practical analysis promotes us understand the demand and direction power with China’s rail freight development evolution. These power provide rational judgment of transport demand and guidance strategy of development direction. Then, the theoretical model and analytical steps of delay grey production function was constructed in the grey production function incorporation time lag variable, which designs for the support mechanism operation and influencing analysis. The use of such model to practical analysis promotes to get different inputs’contribution characteristics and guiding strategy in China’s rail freight development evolution.5. From the perspective of the external mechanism study, the operation mechanism of rail freight development evolution were studied based on evaluation mechanism and adjustment mechanism in theory research and practice analysis. First, in order to find the main problems both characteristics and causes of various operational indicators were analyzed on the basis of indicators selection in the evaluation mechanism operation. These solvable problems could provide status evaluation guidance to strategy formulation in China’s rail freight development evolution. Then, according to the operating system structural model of the evolution impact mechanism of rail freight development, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis on all results among dynamic mechanism, support mechanism and evaluation mechanism. Compared analysis between the adjustment strategy of various stages in rail freight development evolution and actual operation with adjustment mechanism, the operation effect of development evaluation adjustment mechanism were determined.At last, the paper concluded the main work of the dissertation, and pointed out the innovation. The perspective for the further research was also invlvoed in the conclusion. |
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