Study On Embankment-break Flood Insurance Based On 3D Flood Routing Simulation

Flood is one of the major natural disasters for human beings, in the total losses of natural disasters, 40% losses are caused by the flood. Our country is one of the area in which the flood disaster happens most frequently. The economic development and social stability are seriously affected by the flood disaster since economic losses caused by flood disaster are growing by years. The flood insurance is one of the most practical measures for flood risk management, the study on insurance evaluation to the embankment-break flood has great theoretical and practical meaning. So, the insurance evaluation and bonds pricing of embankment-break are urgently needed to be solved. Based on the 3-D flood numerical simulation, the research is aimed to provide scientific basis on the insurance evaluation and bonds pricing of embankment-break in the condition of the lack of historical statistics. And the conclusions are summarized in the following:(1) The risk of filling canal is identified by analyzing of the flood disasters’ features; and threshold is modeled by building the relationship of the risk rate and the class of the canal. The identifying of the risk and embankment-break threshold values are analyzed through a case, and the empirical methods are conducted to calculate the probabilities of dike burst. It is acted as a bridge between the qualitative evaluation of channel safe and the quantitative calculation of risk rate, which provides theoretical basis for the safe operation of the channel.(2) Coupled with the VOF(Volume of Fluid), the 3-D embankment-break turbulence mathematical model of water-air two-phase flow is developed. According to the calculation of embankment-break flood flow evolution, the basic hydraulic elements for calculation of disaster losses are acquired, which provide the basic data for disaster losses, insurance pricing and catastrophe bond pricing of embankment-break flood.(3) The timing, measurement, institution and model of flood insurance are studied, the expected utility model are built on the analysing of 3-D floor embankment-break simulation; the after charge of flood risk rate are calculated by the model of CAPM(Capital Asset Pricing Model). The method, which is based on the numerical simulation of 3-D flood embankment-break, is practical and the valuation of flood risk can be properly provided by the analysis.(4) The three typical models of catastrophe bond pricing are compared, i.e., LFC model, Wang two-factor model and Christofides model, which are often used for risk pricing. The catastrophe bond pricing model based on DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) method is established and applied to the catastrophe bond pricing of embankment-break flood. It provides an insight into risk management of embankment-break flood when lack of historical statistic data.