Spatial And Temporal Distribution Pattern Of Forest Fire Occurred In Heilongjiang Province And Tendency Prediction

The forest fire has become one of the major natural disasters in the world. With global wanning, the harm degree of the forest fire increased. Heilongjiang province, the annual forest burned area ranks first in the country, is the most serious fire hazard area. The annual Heilongjiang province burned area is1/3more than the national annual average burned area. Therefore, study on the model of forest fire in Heilongjiang province and its temporal and spatial variation can provide reference for the study of forest fire rules, different rules of forest fire model and the space and time, but also has important theoretical and practical significance for fire fighting and prevention management.In this study, the forest fire data of Heilongjiang province, in1980-2010years30years of meteorological data and topographic data based on the data, a period of30years, Heilongjiang Province, seasonal, interannual fire number of monthly variation analysis, to study the Heilongjiang province fire number and calculation of forest fire circle and fire season length etc. Over a period of30years, According to the victims of forest fires in forest area classification; changes in the law; application of ArcMap9.3software, the fire point information table data into vector data formats （shp format）; then converted to Beijing54coordinate system （Beijing₁954_GK_Zone₂2N）, estimated the fire and the fire centroid point and spatial displacement analysis of spatial fluctuations of forest fires. Moisture, temperature, sunlight and other weather factors on univariate analysis of variance, and build fires and meteorological factors in univariate and multivariate regression model were established by stepwise regression approach to explore the relationship between changes in forest fires and meteorological factors in Heilongjiang Province.The following are the conclusions of this thesis:1, Heilongjiang Province from1980to2010forest fires in30years, the high incidence of forest fires was happened in1980and1987, the number of forest fires and burned area are larger, with consistency; after1988the frequency of forest fires and fire area were decreased significantly. Spring and autumn are the major forest fire in Heilongjiang province period. The main types of forest fire danger rating in the area is generally larger forest fires and forest fires.2, In Heilongjiang province, forest fires most often occurrs in the Heihe, Daxing’an ling region, Mudanjiang and Yichun, while the forest fire is relatively concentrated in the in Daxing’an ling region, Heihe and Yichun. Spatial displacement of forest fires fire centroid is not very obvious.3, Meteorological factors （air humidity, temperature and sunshine hours） were analyzedand the temperature, humidity, sunshine significantly affect forest fires. 4, The total area burned, artificial fire area and wind speed models were established. Stepwise regression analysis after each way for the introduction of a variable contribution rate model, through systematic research, and ultimately determine humidity, wind speed model all have a good contribution rate reached0.8, to determine the optimal model.