A Research On The Grain Price In The Huai River Basin Of1736-1850

Grain is the most basic consumer goods of human society, and the most important commodity of traditional society. Grain is directly related to people’s lives, market operation, and it provides an indispensable precondition for the decision-making strategy of agricultural policy, governance and Famine Relief warehouse operation of the Qing Dynasty. The government of the Qing Dynasty built the "report system of the rain, snow, harvest and grain price" to collect the grain price of most provinces. This paper uses the data to research and analyze the grain price of Huai River Basin.This article firstly analyzes the situation of agricultural production of Huai River Basin. According to the analysis, Northern Jiangsu and Northern Anhui were food deficit areas, Southern Shandong, Eastern Henan belonged to Food surplus areas. Then the main parts discuss the operation of grain market, the characteristic of changes in food prices, the social impact of food price volatility, and the market integration. The first part analyzes the grain circulation and adjustment, and arbitrage traders of the grain market, to assess the relationship between the national policy, the gentry, the public and the market. Qing Huai River Basin spontaneously formed by the circulation of food surplus areas to deficit areas, market was continuously developed.The second part, investigates longitudinal changes in Huai River Basin food price series from1736to1850by the three aspects:long-term trend, seasonal index and cycle. Seasonal changes were mainly affected by the crop growth cycle, the effects of tillage system, food supply and demand, and transportation. Through the spectrum analysis, there were a short period of five years and a long period of seventeen years on the price of wheat, the reason for which were prices of short-term fluctuations and periodic changes in family in traditional society. The food price series presents a long-term upward trend, the main factors affecting food prices were weather changes, transportation, population, fields, and the amount of a currency in circulation. Government adopted a law to encourage the cultivation of crops originated in American and improved the monetary system to control the rising trend of price.The third part analyzes the response to the impact of short-term fluctuations in food prices on society of Huai River Basin. Water, drought, locusts, plague and other disasters triggered sharp short-term fluctuations in food prices and a series of food riots, and had a negative impact on social custom. Government took a series of measures, including the construction of regular positions, granting money and food, strictly prohibiting local government restricting grain circulation, prohibition of hoarding, and reduction of taxes, in order to promote food circulation. Gentry donated food, took an active part in the relief during disasters, and played a more and more important role in warehouse operation maintenance, and management. Government functions in this regard were replaced by the gentry in the late Qing social positions.The fourth part uses correlation, regression and cointegration three methods to analyze the grain market price synchronization, it was found that the degree of market integration and efficiency of the Huai River Basin were high. And from the perspective of New Institutional Economics, to explore the reasons for the coexistence of high degree of market integration and the peasant economy.This paper attempts to take the method, which combines history of the system and the history of regional economy, the mathematical analysis and the literature description, and the microcosmic inspection and macroscopic inspection, to discuss the price of grain.