Research On The Oil-Gas Mining-Decision Model Based On The Reserves Value

Oil and gas is one of the most important natural resources in modern society. Oil and gas is very important to human life and national economic development. Oil and gas reserves evaluation is the premise of business investment decisions. Also oil and gas reserves evaluation is the premise basis of daily production and management. Developping the valuation and development optimization of oil and gas reserves is the need to participate international bidding. Also, it is necessary for the oil and gas enterprises to strengthen the daily operation and management. Furthermore, it has important theoretical and practical significance in development of oil and gas resources and conservation and full utilization of oil and gas resources.This dissertation includes five chapters. The first one analyzes the topic basis, the relative research development, methods, content and so on. The second one expounds applying BP neural network to grade reserve value of oil and gas. The third one deals with the oilfield development planning model based on oil reserves evaluation. The fourth one discusses the development decision-making model of oil reservoir based on the option value of oil price. The last one is conclusion and prospect.The main content of dissertation is as follows:(1) Establishing the BP neural network of grade reserve value of oil and gasAccording to the error minimum principle of grading reserve value of oil and gas, the learing rate and dynamic coefficients of weight are determined. Then the optimal weights are determined. By setting the optimal weights, the accuracy of the BP neural network is 96.61%. BP neural network is established which avoids the influence of the subjective factors.Also, this paper can provides a new idea for grading the reserve value of many oil and gas blocks.(2) Establishing the oilfield development planning model based on oil reserves evaluationThe problem of oilfield development planning is decomposed into a multi-stage decision problem, in which the maximum of the net present value is taken as objective function, and then got the optimum well number of each stage. This identified the optimum well number of each stage in oilfield development planning, which less concerned in the existing research.(3) Establishing the reserves mining-decision model based on the option value of oil price modification This study established the reserves mining-decision model based on the option value of oil price modification. This model took into account the call options and put options in the calculation of the value of the option using the NPV model.