Mining Investment Decision Research And Application Of Real Option Game Theory

This thesis comes from the national “Eleventh Five” science and technology support project of“technicalandeconomic evaluation studiesofoverseas mineralresourcesdevelopment and utilization”and the Social Planning Office of Jiangxi Province (2009) disciplines to build the project of “mininginvestment decision-making theory and method based on flexible theory”.This paper takes “Mining investment decision-making of research and application based on realoption game” as the main line. The fuzzy theory, real options theory, comprehensive evaluation theoryand game theory are applied to make a comprehensive study. And the research is used in a mininginvestment project of Jiangxi Province. The main content and conclusions of this thesis is:It reviews the historical investment decision-making theory and summarizes the classification andpricing methods for real options. It reviews application studies condition on real option both at homeand abroad, puts emphasis on its application in mining industry and points out the key issues for futurestudies.It analyzes the characteristics of mining industry investment and points out the uncertaintyfactors and the factors affecting the real option values. It gives the application framework of the optiongame theory in mining investment and expands the traditional mining industry investment decision-making approach.It builds a comprehensive evaluation index system of mining investment projects and uses AHPto determine the index weight. It adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate thevalue of the project, with which as project options value realization degree. On the basis of thecomprehensive evaluation of the project and combined with the basic principle of fuzzy mathematics,a mining investment decision-making model based on fuzzy real option is established. Analyzes theequity transfer the Game of the stakeholders of mining enterprises, establishes the equity transfer ofmining enterprises based on incomplete information dynamic game model and gives the combinationof each strategy game both sides expect income formula.Fuzzy real options evaluation model and the equity transfer of mining enterprises dynamic gamemodel are applied to the investment decisions of the molybdenum mine in Jiangxi Probince. Theresults show that Real option value is more suitable for the evaluation of the project that traditionalfinancial evaluation can not be adopted. With the specific data the game between the stakeholders inthis project is analyzed to get the game equilibrium between the various stakeholders. The rusults showthat the mining investment decisions based on real option game model and theoretical framework ofthis paper has better theoretical value and practical promotional value.