Price Index System Construction Of Regional Silk And Chemical Fiber Fabric And Its Model Research Of Market Forecasting

In the entire process of economic system operation, the change of various price indices is affected by each other and restrained by each other, so as to form a complete price index system and operating mechanism. It can reflect the market price and the change of the whole market operation comprehensive and accurately, and it has some characteristics, such as timely, scientific and practical. In recent years, the price index of textile industry appears in bulk raw material market, according to the representative price of a single product, use sample weight and the number weighting method to generate, the expression of the price index is usually reflected with the unit price directly, it is convenient for people to do direct judgment, and have received very good effect in the implementation process, but not reflected the influence that to the actual bargain number price yet. With the extension of textile products processing, fabric product market scale is increasing, and for the market which focus on the trade, it is necessary to establish the fabric price index on the basis of market operation, so that can response the true market demand instantly, it is alsospecialty integration innovation work in the field of industry and very necessarily. In this paper, the premise is the price index system theory and application, based on the actual market of regional silk chemical fiber fabric, building silk chemical fiber fabric ladder price index system, the design and implementation of specific market operation, and fabric product ladder price index data of time series prediction model for the main content was studied and discussed.It firstly based on the price index evolution and development, showing various representative of the index method. This paper expounds that the ideal of fisher price index is used for the price index of regional silk chemical fiber fabric to do market evaluation is very feasible in practical and theory, and points out that the diffiences of the price index in the existing textile industry by the way of a representative product price directly.On the basis of establishing the framework of index and the work module, and design and construct the product information data system of the textile fabrics classification market, it is called the price index system of textile fabrics. Silk and fiber fabric’s ladder type price index system must be based on market recognition and textile products classification, so that can achieve the stratified categories of big class, small class, and single products. In the choice of index, demographic the actual transaction price and quantity of an enterprise at the same time, so that discussing the connection between number changing and price changing become possible. In that case, building an expression way of fabric ladder price index, use sales as weight to calculate. Combined with data from market research and information collection, putting forward the silk chemical fiber fabric use a fixed price index and variable weights as the design concept, make the price index have sustainability and comparability. This paper puts forward the sampling points and the choice of sampling breeds and adjusting principles, and possible errors and correction methods.This paper designs the function and framework of the index operation system. On the basis of building the framework of the background system function module, establish the interface system, and realize data acquisition, data input, data audit, index calculation and index management and the process of release during the operation of index. Use the index system and database software realize the connections among the back-end program, index applications and Web program three parts, and finally users can visit Web server inquires to get each fabric index data through the browser.This paper analyzes the price index of silk chemical fiber fabric and its market operation data curve based on the actual data sampling and network system. This paper studies single variety of silk and price index of chemical fiber fabric by using regression moving average model and regression heteroscedastic model. After stability transformation, model identification and set order, the parameter estimation, heteroscedastic effect inspection and the modeling process, finally establish corresponding fitting model and used it to forecast. Using single variety of silk and chemical fiber fabric price index method, based on the data of market, empirical analyze the ladder price index of the silk and the time series of chemical fiber fabric. From the forecasting result of the price index for modeling, analysis, fitting:Short-time forecasting has higher confidence. And with the prediction error is the continuation of the fluctuating growth trend, the model prediction accuracy can get to market effect realize the estimated and evaluation. Predict the average error by single variety fabric price index, categories fabric price index and fabric price index in turn decreases, and the forecasting results is in accord with a principle which resulted by the higher level price index is the next level by weighted average price index during the process of a price index building. More information every bit of the curve contains, more smooth the curve operated, the smaller the volatility of peak will be, and the higher the accuracy of prediction will be, that is the accuracy of prediction with the ascension of the ladder can be increased.Based on the price data, the price index of regional chemical fiber fabric silk market which is built by the system research institution have run more times in the market. And after using, the result shows that the price trends of various products reflect the basic economic form in the market. The core value is to solve the problem of market information symmetry, change the commonly used qualitative and lagging behind the descriptive analysis to a specific, sustainable and quantitative analysis, so that it can be widely accepted by market merchants. Functional departments master industry market price mechanism, the supply and demand mechanism, the competition mechanism and the operation of the mechanism for the risk process, and provide important reference to the industry overall management. For producers and operators study industry dynamic change and predict prices industry development offer future basis.