China's Real Estate Economic Growth Forecasting Model Based On Time Series Analysis

The increment value of real estate industry is,which is calculated at the market price,the final outcome of all resident units engaged in the real estate industry production activities in a certain period of time.The increment value of real estate is an important measurement of the development of the real estate industry in a certain period.It is also an important reference for the state or region to regulate the real estate industry and formulate corresponding policies.The method of time series analysis is to study and estimate the statistical regularity of a certain time series in the course of long-term variation.And then the statistical regularity of the time series is extended to the future to predict the future trend of the time series.Based on the method of time series analysis,the model is set up which is used for the prediction of the increment value of the real estate in our country.The model can accurately predict the future trend of the increment value of real estate industry in our country,so as to provide theoretical guidance for regulation and formulation of corresponding policies in the real estate industry in our country.The relevant data are obtained from the website of the National Bureau of Statistics,which are on the increment value of real estate industry in our country from 2000 to 2017.The data processing is combined with relevant software,such as EViews 8.0,SPSS20.0 and Matlab 2012 a.Based on the method of time series analysis,the data is fitted,and then The product seasonal model of ARIMA,the superimposed model,the gray prediction model and time series model based on first order difference equation for prediction are respectively established.Based on the superposition prediction model,Growth index model is combined with trigonometric function model,which is used of building the expression form of the additive superimposed prediction model.It is based on the new optimization method that A new expression of grey prediction model is established.Meanwhile,the bran-new expression form of time series prediction model which is based on first order difference equation is given.The increment value of the real estate industry in our country is predicted by the established model in the paper.Finally,the prediction model with smallest error is selected as the prediction model of the increment value of real estate industry in our country.And then this model is applied to the prediction of the increment value of real estate industry in our country,and it is used for the theoretical guidance,which is provided for the regulation and policy of the real estate industry in ourcountry.