Research On Shocks And Volatility In Transitional Countries

On the late1980s and early1990s, the transformation of the country’s political, economic and social aspects of the reform and development by the concern of the international academic and policy circles. Of particular concern is the transformation of the national economic fluctuations at certain times of volatility will suddenly enlarged, showing explosive, and the frequency of occurrence is far more than the mature market economies. Based on this, this paper introduces the economic impact of variable, the main empirical research, and selected economic fluctuations and the impact of the transition countries more representative of economic shocks and fluctuations in the transition countries, Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, China as the study sample, have a more complete time series data base, using the theoretical and empirical analysis and comparison of qualitative and quantitative research methods combining to cause the transformation of the national economic fluctuations impact factors and transition The problem analysis and comparative studies. HP filter, impulse response analysis function, the VAR vector autoregression model, multiple regression analysis (used to estimate the transition extended Cobb-Douglas model) is the mathematical basis of this article.According to the above study, the paper discussed with the fluctuations around the economic impact, its main contents are as follows:Introduction part of the first countries in transition definition describes the meaning, the purpose of this study put forward the problem to be solved, respectively, to economic shocks and economic fluctuations, the impact of the economic crisis theory, transformation of the National Performance Review conducted a literature review.Chapter2introduces the economic shocks and fluctuations in the economy, which is the theoretical basis of empirical research. Here detailed descriptions of the types of economic shocks and fluctuations in the economy of the countries in transition, as well as to estimate the economic impact of the models and methods, the main vector auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition model.Chapter3introduces the measure of economic fluctuations:the HP filter method and its application in countries in transition, and also compared the similarity of the fluctuations in transition countries, a brief analysis of the cause.Chapters4and5is the focus of this article. Fourth chapter examines the impact of the transition countries face internal transformation of the first part analyzes the transformation of policy shocks lead to economic crisis, and the analysis focused on the interpretation and comparison of the data; the impact of the second part of the study of changes in industrial structure, the extraction of Russia as an empirical analysis of the samples, the empirical description of the third part of the1998Russian economic crisis, and that internally generated when the Russian economy, the Russian economic crisis in1998, is the culprit, the Southeast Asian financial crisis was only the fuse only.The fifth chapter examines the external shocks faced by the countries in transition to build a three-variable VAR econometric models, select China and Russia as the analysis of samples, the quantitative estimation of the impact of international oil prices, to judge by the impulse response function analysis and variance decompositionthe main impact of the direction and intensity, and finally compare the similarities and differences of the international oil price shocks affect the two countries. In addition, selected Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, since the emphasis on the transformation of foreign capital flows and foreign dependence, and experience to analyze the impact of the current international financial crisis on capital flows.Chapter6to evaluate the performance of the countries in transition, how to quantify assess the performance of the transition countries in transition is a difficult problem, because it involves many economic indicators, including the economic system and economic structure. In this chapter I try to build a proxy variable to cover the economic system and economic structure, and ultimately seek its potential output, and finally by comparison with the actual output, the countries in transition to make the transformation to evaluate the performance. Which, given the data available, China, as the analysis sample to draw general conclusions, as the performance evaluation of a way of thinking or explore.Chapter7of the transformation of the national economic impact of the economic policy issues, the study focused on the specific measures for transition countries to respond to the current international financial crisis assessment, also built the three-variable VAR model to the measurement of the impact assessment on the transformation of the national infrastructure investment, and its conclusions infrastructure investment has played an active role in the transformation of the national anti-economic shocks. It is worth mentioning, can not categorically determine the international financial crisis has ended, because the transition countries, including China, have not demonstrated a good economic situation in the pre-crisis (although the V-shaped hair turn), economic fluctuations still exist the possibility of volatility and, more importantly, the transition countries to respond to the measures of the impact of the financial crisis seems to be effective short term, but long-term hidden internal and external risks, these risks largely born in, including countries in transition countries in the world of policies and measures to address the financial crisis, this chapter also involved in this part of the content.Chapter8of the main conclusions of this paper is a full-text summary of chapters, and further research is prospected.By studying the transition to economic shocks and volatility, we draw the following conclusions:First, the constraints and incentives are two necessary conditions for the efficient operation of the market economy, which requires the support of the relevant policies in transition, adjustment and supporting the protection of the system. Indeed, for any transition, the transformation of economic crisis is difficult to avoid, but the impact to the countries in transition brought about by economic fluctuations very different, which focus on the sequence of reforms to develop in line with the role of incentives, effective system of constraints of the obstacle to reform transition countries, the face of the impact of the transformation of the economic crisis, delaying the impact of the possibility to reduce the fluctuations in the economy. Second, the rationalization of industrial structure is an inevitable requirement for coordinated economic development. Whether a country’s economy the coordinated development, the formation of a virtuous economic cycle in this country depends largely on the possibility of establishing a rational industrial structure. Econometric analysis, we see that the pace of development of the tertiary industry of Russia is more than any other industry, and the proportion is close to the western countries, but Russia is still not able to successfully get rid of the mode of production of primary products, and therefore more vulnerable to international commodity price shocks, which requires countries in transition to adjust industrial structure, industrial structure from a lower level to a higher form of conversion.Third, changes in international commodity prices impact a product of resources to rely on the strong transition countries severe economic fluctuations. In recent years, due to the political situation in the Middle East, military conflict, the OPEC oil embargo and limited production, and countries in transition face oil supply shocks, its direct result of high international oil prices (excluding on the international financial crisis, leading to economic recession, there oil prices decline in short-term stage), based on real oil prices, economic growth, interest rate variable, the oil price shocks of the three-variable VAR model, the Sino-Russian influence and show that the characteristics of the international oil price changes on long-term impact of the Russian economy, while from oil price shocks of GDP fluctuations in the frequency of view, China is clearly stronger than Russia’s more frequent. Russia’s interest rate policy on the economy a negative shock is obvious, and continued the positive impact of interest rates impact on the duration of greater than the negative impact of time, China’s interest rate policy is effective.Fourth, countries in transition but also the emerging market economies, the trend of economic globalization continue to strengthen the conditions of openness and growth in emerging markets to enable these countries to attract international capital to invest in their economies, at the same time, the emerging markets of naive type makes these countries the lack of resilience in the face of international risk, especially the impact of international financial risk. Anti-economic impact, positive impact of infrastructure investment have to resolve the capital flight, the negative impact of the conditions.