| Since "the12th Five-Year Plan" was implemented, domestic industries accelerate their transformation and upgrading. The per capita GDP of the six central provinces has been more than3000U.S. dollars in2010. The central region has already entered intermediate period of industrialization. The central region industry needs to be upgraded. However, it is particularly important how we can promote the speed of industrial upgrading in central region, and ensure economic development steady and fast to achieve the Rise of Central China. Among the factors that can promote industrial upgrading, FDI is a powerful external force. With the raising level of the central opening and the proposing of "the Rise of Central China" strategy, the scale of FDI increases rapidly in central region. By2010, FDI inflow of central region has reached nearly a quarter of China s, which is more than that in the eastern and western China. At the same time, the Western developed countries proposed "re-industrialization" strategy, which makes it difficult to guarantee the scale and quality of FDI in central region. With the increasing degree of wholly foreign-owned, technology spillover effect of FDI reduces; the quantity of FDI increases, but the industry distribution is extremely unreasonable; the scale of investment in pollution industries increases, but the situation has become more serious to protect resources and the environment. All this means how to use FDI to promote the central industrial upgrading is an extremely important and complex project.This dissertation mainly studies the impacts FDI on industrial upgrading in central region, in order to find the loopholes in methods or policies of introducing FDI. By doing that, the foreign investment policy in Central China can be improved and serve the central economy better. In order to solve the problem how to use FDI to promote the central industrial upgrading, the author argues that the key is to solve the following three problems from itself. Firstly, we should improve central region absorptive capacity to attract higher-quality FDI, which can accelerate the industrial upgrading in central region. Secondly, we should increase the spillover effects of FDI, only by doing this can we enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in central region, which is the core. Thirdly, use reasonable ways、means or policy to enhance the role of FDI in industrial upgrading in central region. The dissertation contains seven chapters. Chapter1elaborates the background, significance and main contents of the research. Chapter2gives the definitions of FDI and industrial upgrading respectively, and elaborates FDI theory and industrial upgrading theory. It also summarizes and reviews domestic and foreign scholars’related research. Chapter3describes the status quo of FDI utilization and industrial upgrading in central region, and summarizes the possible paths to use FDI to promote industrial upgrading in central region. Chapter4supplies a basic road to promoting industrial upgrading by using FDI, calculates and compares the absorptive capacity in the central and eastern region, finds the gap between the two regions, studies the role of FDI in the growth of central region, verifies the capital effect of FDI, studies the role of FDI in technology progress in central region. The FDI technology spillover effect in central region is verified in Chapter4. From three perspectives including the inter-industry, industry and industrial ecology, the empirical study on relationship of FDI and the central industrial upgrading is done in Chapter5. It also estimates and analyzes the direct and indirect effects of FDI on industrial upgrading of central region. The suggestions and countermeasures in raising the role of FDI in industrial upgrading in central region are proposed in Chapter6. Conclusions and research prospects are summarized inChapter7. Among them, Chapter4and Chapter5are the core parts of the dissertation.The main research achievements of this dissertation are as follows:1. Establish and validate the index system for regional FDI absorptive capacity based on the idea of structural equation model by exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Calculate and compare the absorptive ability in the eastern, central and western China.The dissertation proposes that regional absorptive capacity includes mainly the following three aspects:the technology absorptive capacity, the system absorptive capacity and the base absorptive capacity. There are15factors affecting the size of absorptive capacity. After establishing the structural equation model of index system and using ULS method to estimate that, the conclusion is drew, ie, currently, the main factors of the regional FDI absorptive capacity are system and technology. After calculating, the eastern, central and western absorptive capacity has been improving in recent years, the eastern absorptive capacity is significantly higher than that in central region. The gap between central and eastern regions was firstly expanded and then narrowed, which may be relevant to the implementation of "the Rise of Central China" strategy. But the narrowed gap mainly due to the raised system absorptive capability. The gaps in base absorptive capacity and technology absorptive capacity haven’t narrowed, but there is an expansion tendency, which is very unfavorable to attract and absorb the high-quality FDI.2. Establish econometric models that reflect the long-term relationship between FDI and the central economic growth based on cointegration theory, and the VEC model reflecting the short-term dynamic relationship between FDI and central economic growth is also set up. Do an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and the central economic growth in the long-term and short-term.The empirical research shows that in the long run, FDI does have a stable promoting role in central economic growth. According to the Granger causality test, FDI causes central economic growth, while the central economic growth also causes FDI flow increasing. But in the short run, FDI change has less and less effect on the central economic growth, and may have negative effect. The dissertation also finds that relatively domestic investment accelerates better the central economic growth than FDI. Because of that, the quality of FDI is worth concerning.3. According to the Solow economic growth model, the author confirms the production function of all provinces in central region by using ridge regression analysis. The technical level in central region over the years is also calculated. The panel data model of the relationship between FDI and technical level is established. Use quantitative analysis methods to do an empirical research.The dissertation proposes that the technical level in central region has been continuously improving since1991. FDI has a significant role in promoting the technological level in central region, and the spillover effect is obvious. Further analysis also finds that spillover effect of FDI was obvious before "the Rise of Central China" strategy is put forward. After that the effect is less obvious. It also finds that the finance technology funding, and opening up can raise the technological level in central region, while the industrial structure can’t. This means the industrial upgrading is around the corner in central region.4. Establish the panel data model on the relationship between FDI and inter-industry upgrading, and do an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and industrial upgrading by the quantitative analysis methods. Establish the SEM on FDI and inter-industrial upgrading in the secondary and tertiary industries. Study the direct and indirect effects of FDI on inter-industry upgrading by path analysis.The study shows that the expansion of FDI scale indeed promotes the inter-industry upgrading in central region. But it mainly promotes the development of the secondary industry, but hinders the development of tertiary industry. FDI has positive direct and indirect effects on the level of production structure (take the ratio of secondary industry in GDP as index), but it has positive direct and negative indirect effects on the level of the tertiary industry structure.(take the ratio of tertiary industry in GDP as index). It also finds that the absolute value of indirect effect is more obvious than that of direct effect. The wholly-owned foreign investment improvement will hinder the central inter-industry upgrading. FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan can promote the central inter-industry upgrading, but FDI from Germany, Japan and the United States can’t. The improvement of FDI in secondary and tertiary industries can not promote industrial upgrading in central region. Seen in this light, the unreasonable industry distribution of FDI will have a great impact on the central industrial upgrading.5. Establish the panel data model on the relationship between FDI and industry upgrading. Analyze the relationship between FDI and the industrial and service sectors of industrial upgrading by the quantity analysis methods; establish the structural equation model on the relationship between FDI and industrial upgrading of high technology industry and productive service industry; study direct and indirect effects of FDI on industry upgrading by path analysis.The dissertation researches the problem of industrial upgrading from perspective of the quality of the industry itself. The empirical research results show that the expansion of FDI scale hinders the central industry industrial upgrading, and promotes the service industrial upgrading. The degree of wholly-owned foreign investment has significant impediment to the central industrial upgrading. FDI from developed countries improves obviously industry industrial upgrading in the central and eastern regions, and it plays a larger role in eastern region than central region. At the same time, FDI from developed countries has a significant role in promoting the service industrial upgrading in central region; the foreign investment of high-tech industry will hinder industrial upgrading of central industry. But the foreign investment of productive service industry will promote industrial upgrading of central service industry. FDI has positive direct effects on the central industry and service industrial upgrading, but the indirect effect is negative. This shows that the technology absorptive capacity in central region needs urgently to be improved.6. Establish the index system for the level of regional industrial ecology, and determine the weight of index by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the coefficient of variation method, on the basis of this, study and analyze the level of industrial ecology in central region.According to the definition of the level of industrial ecology, the dissertation proposes that factors influencing the level of regional industrial ecology include mainly the ecology use of industrial resource, industrial ecology environmental protection and ecological development of industry economy. The results of calculation show that the level of industrial ecology in central region has been significantly increasing since2005. There is still gap with the eastern region, but the gap has significantly narrowed. The analysis shows that the most important reason why the gap is narrower is the level of environmental and ecological protection in central region has been improved in recent years.7. Establish the panel data model on relationship between FDI and industrial ecology upgrading. Have an empirical study on their relationship by measurement methods; establish the SEM for foreign investment of industrial pollution industry and the central industrial ecology upgrading. Study the direct and indirect effects of foreign investment on industrial ecology upgrading by path analysis.The dissertation takes the level of industrial ecology as the index of industrial ecology upgrading, the study shows that the expansion of FDI scale hinders the industrial ecology upgrading in central region, but promotes it in eastern region. The increasing degree of wholly-owned foreign investment raises the level of the central industrial ecology. The improvement of the capital proportion from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan can promote the upgrading of the central industrial ecology, but one from developed countries is in the opposite direction; the increasing pollution industries’investment may hinder industrial ecology upgrading in central region, but not significantly.In different pollution industries FDI has different role in the central industrial ecology upgrading. The direct effect and indirect effects of foreign investment in the mining industry are negative in central region. In view of industrial ecology upgrading, the direct effect of foreign investment in high pollution industries in manufacturing industry is positive; the indirect effect is negative; the direct effect of foreign investment in electricity, gas and water production and supply industry is positive, but indirect effect is negative. |
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