Study On Evaluating Urban Sewage Treatment Project Investment Based On Different Object

In recent years, the investment of sewage treatment project had becomea hot research topic with a number of sewage treatment plant constructionin inChina.Experts and scholars had made a lot of research from project design, projectinvestment and construction to the operation and management of sewage treatment plant,but the research on urban sewage project investment evaluation decision obviouslylagged behind them. The investment risk evaluation basically of the project stayed theeconomic and technology. In fact, for the sewage treatment project to be built,the futuresewage cost and the comprehensive benefits of the project had gradually become also animportant factor of city sewage project investment decision. At the same time, becauselacking of the sewage cost evaluation method, that had not formed a completecomprehensive decision of urban sewage treatment project evaluation. In order toachieve the comprehensive decision of urban sewage treatment investment projectevaluation,the comprehensive decision system of urban sewage treatment investmentproject evaluation was established. The various kinds of risks were as the main line ofthe study, and project investment risk forecast evaluation system, the sewage operationcost prediction evaluation system and sewage treatment plant comprehensive benefitevaluation system were respectively built. The main research contents and conclusionswere summarized as follows:①Urban sewage treatment project investment risk prediction evaluation researchThe project investment risk of urban sewage treatment was as the object of study inthis paper, and the author analysed the impact of urban sewage treatment projectinvestment risk factors in great detail, used Monte Carlo risk assessment as reliable, lessresource occupied and highly efficient to carry on the simulationan alysis for urbansewage project investment risk analysis. The study found that Monte Carlo simulationmethod was seldom used in the sewage treatment project and sewage equipment secondupdate cost was not considered as investment risk variables in the past.as the urbansewage treatment project had a long investment cycle or more than twenty years, andsewage equipment life was generally about ten years.Therefore, sewage equipmentsecond update risk must be considered during the operation,and the forecast investmentrisk will be more objective, comprehensive and accurate than ever. Through comparingthe internal rate of return, the investment recovery period and the net present value evaluation index, the net present value was elected project investment risk evaluationindicators, and then the investment risk evaluation model of urban sewage treatmentproject was built.②Urban sewage operation cost forecast evaluation researchThis article set up the urban sewage operation cost forecast evaluation system thatrealized the prediction and evaluation on urban sewage operation cost. By the researchof urban sewage treatment plants in southwest China, the author put forword thecontaminant oxygen consumption equivalent treatment cost evaluation method. Andthen the method was conducted an empirical study. and it proved that obvious negativecorrelation between the pollutants oxygen consumption equivalent and its treatmentcosts. On this basis，the urban sewage operation cost prediction and evaluation systemwas built by the use of statistics analysis method,and then of sewage operating costs of37sewage treatment plants was evaluated.Research results shew that the operating costsof29plants was normal but8was abnormal (among them,3low and5high).At thesame time,it also proved that the pollutant oxygen consumption equivalent treatmentcost evaluation method can effectively evaluate the sewage operation cost. According tothe forecast evaluation system,urban sewage cost in southwest China established wasfeasible. This evaluation method can be used as a prediction evaluation decision methodof the urban sewage treatment operation cost.③Urban sewage treatment project comprehensive benefit prediction evaluationresearchThe urban sewage treatment project comprehensive benefit forecast evaluationsystem included status evaluation and forecast evaluation. At present, this system hadnot been clearly proposed at home and abroad. Therefore,this paper presented thecomprehensive benefit forecast evaluation ideas.Through the comparison of variousmethods, fuzzy AHP that combined AHP with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodwas selected as the analysis method of urban sewage project treatment evaluation andprediction. Then, the steps of urban sewage treatment comprehensive benefits predictionevaluation system were discussed, and then analysis model of16indexes in3layers of5factors was built according to the fuzzy AHP method. In order to realize the predictionof urban sewage treatment plant comprehensive benefit indexes, and the comprehensivebenefit evaluation indexes were divided into investigation index and investment planindex.And their evaluation set was established. Finally, the paper fixed weight of theindicators of the comprehensive benefit by Delphi method and AHP, and set up the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of urban sewage treatment project.④the comprehensive decision research of urban sewage treatment projectinvestment evaluationThe comprehensive decision of city sewage treatment project investment schemeevaluation based on different targets was established,and it included three elementssuch as project investment risk predictive evaluation, sewage operation cost predictionevaluation and comprehensive benefit evaluation. Susequently, the basic principle wasanalyzed project investment scheme evaluation comprehensive decision-making,andthen its application steps of were briefly described.On this basis, and the projectinvestment risk evaluation’s role was illustrated in the city sewage treatment projectevaluation and decision-making system as well as wastewater operation cost forecastevaluation and comprehensive benefit evaluation prediction of sewage treatment plant.According to the research of comprehensive evaluation decision system of urbansewage treatment investment scheme, and taking the sewage treatment plant of a countyof Chong qing as an example to conduct a comprehensive analysis, the results was asfollow. As using A2O process scheme,the project had higher investment risk but normaloperating costs and good comprehensive benefits.As using the second scheme oroxidation ditch process, had relatively low investment risk, normal sewage operatingcosts,and good comprehensive benefits. As using the third scheme or SBR process,theproject had relatively low investment risk but the abnormal sewage cost and lowcomprehensive benefit. Therefore, for the investment company should choosethe second scheme or oxidation ditch process,because it had lower investment risk andnormal sewage operating costs among of three investment plans.In conclusion, the comprehensive decision research of urban sewage treatmentinvestment scheme comprehensive evaluation not only enriched the investmentevaluation and decision-making theory of urban sewage treatment project but alsoprovided one more scientific, objective and comprehensive prediction evaluationtool.Therefore, this research on the urban sewage treatment project investment in thispaper today had important theoretical and practical significance.