Correlation Analysis And Emergency Decision Model Research On Fire Rescue Time Based On Fires Data

Well performed fire rescue can significantly control fires. This is represented by fire attendance time and fire fighting time. The former reflects the timely ability of fire rescue, while the latter reflects the effectiveness of fire fighting. This paper, based on the urban fire data from2000to2010in Jiangxi province, on the spatial dimension, the inter connection between fire attendance time and fire fighting time and the correlation between fire fighting time and fire loss; on the time dimension the dependency relationship between fire fighting time and fire loss. Finally it summarizes the statistical law based on the two dimensions and developed a sequential decision model of building fire emergency rescue.The differences of the first attendance time at difference places are caused by the different location. Fire fighting time is confined by both the fire location and the urban area, which is manifested in that fire fighting time in the city and county was significantly less than that in towns and suburbs, fire fighting time in workshop and warehouse is more than that in other places. There is a certain correlation between fire attendance time and fire fighting time. If the fire attendance time is within15minutes, the average fire fighting time grows linearly with it, while it expends more than15minutes; the increasing trend of fire fighting time becomes slow.Under different fire fighting time, the city building fire "frequency-burned area" satisfies the power-law distribution. Power function index represents the fire control ability. If the absolute value of the index is large, the probability of small fires is large and the probability of large fires is small. Meanwhile, this value of index has a negative correlation with fire fighting time, that is to say the fire control ability decreased with the growth of fire fighting time. Power function index can be different at different locations. As the fire fighting time increases, the control ability in residence decreased fastest, which followed by the public entertainment places, commercial places and factories. The control ability in warehouse decreases the slowest."Frequency-burned area" power law distribution of regional fire in different cities act differently. Urban areas of cities and county and suburban rural area meet "the one part form" power law distribution, while that of township fire follows "the two part form" power law distribution.Burned area and fire attendance time of building fire have time scale characteristics. With the increasing of the threshold, the fractal characteristic gradually disappears, and the time series transports to Poisson distribution. According to Allen factor, if the burned area is larger than200m2, city building fire performance follows Poisson distribution. When the fire attendance time is larger than60minutes, the time scale disappears and performed as Poisson distribution. The same presents when fighting time is more than110minutes.Time sequence analysis showed that:the average weekly fire attendance time becomes the Granger effect of fire if it lags one order, the average weekly fire fighting time becomes the Granger effect of fire if it lags4orders. In the long run, there is an equilibrium relationship among the average fire attendance time, the average fire fight time and the average burned area and all of the relationships are stable. Average fire attendance time and average fire fighting time positively influence average burned area for about a month. Compared with the average fire fighting time, the average fire attendance time contributes more to the average fire loss. Sensitivity analysis shows that burned area is most sensitive to the attendance time in residential places. And the fire fighting time has the least effect on the burned area. For different city zone, the burned area is most sensitive to fire attendance time in city urban area. And the sensitivity of burned area in city and county urban area to fire fighting time is greater than that of fires in the rural town and suburban town.Based on the correlation analysis of fire attendance time, this paper has set up a building dynamic sequential decision model of fire emergency rescue, considering the dynamic characteristics of the emergency rescue vehicle, fire development and the temporal characteristics of the fire presence. This model introduces the concept of fire important degree, which can solve the impact of fire location and urban areas on fire rescue time and burned area. And it adopted a double layer two goal programming method, considering the current minimum concurrent fire loss and minimum concurrent fire total loss as two targets to achieve local optimum and global optimum. Empirical analysis shows that the building fire emergency rescue decision model developed in this paper is suitable for rescue decision under complex emergency rescue condition, and can provide optimal resource scheduling decision scheme.