The Study Of Demand For Electric Vehicles And Capability Of Services Based On Behavior

As the economy develops and people’s living standards improve, the amount of the cars in China has maintained a rapid growth, which is threatening the ecological environment. Driven by the energy conservation policy, renewable energy generation will get a rapid development. Thus the electric car is the best complement to renewable energy. Growing of the electric car can not only meet the needs of people’s travel, but promote energy conservation and emissions reduction, which can be the strategic direction of the development of auto industry in our country. For the power system operation,large-scale electric vehicle access has both positive and negative impact. Access to a large number of electric vehicles may cause the load increased significantly in certain periods. If the vehicle charging time focuses on the evening peak load periods, it would be more negative in reliable operation of the grid. Electric vehicle charging disorder may also cause raising power system losses, declining of power quality, peak load increasing and other adverse effects. The uncertainty of the electric vehicle pattern brings challenges to the safe and reliable operation of power system. Meanwhile, the particular active behavior and energy storage of electric vehicles offer power system favorable condition in achieving renewable energy consumptive and load shifting. However, there are few studies on these three fields:the electric car battery demand law, charging load regularity and active space, which play basic roles in the electric car large-scale access on the effect of power system. On the other hand, the massive popularity of electric vehicles relies on a sound power supply network, but before the widespread of electric vehicles, there exists some uncertainty on the service capacity of centralized stationing site after filling in power station in investmentservices and on the profitability after various types of investment services equipment. Such problems also affect the investment enthusiasm of electric vehicle service facilities and slow down the service network construction, which adversely bring negative impact on the development of electric vehicle industry. Thus, to solve the problems above, it is necessary to do research on the electric vehicles battery demand law, charging load regularity and active space to lay the foundation for further study on the impact of large-scale electric vehicle access on the power system; It is also essential to study the issues like distribution of the electric car service station, the services of centralized service station construction and its profitability to achieve the estimates in distribution program and the service capacity of station equipment configuration before the actual investment in the con-struction in order to do the spade work for distribution optimization and to optimize the allocation of resources within the station.The main works and innovative achievements of the thesis are as follows:(1) In considering the regularity of the vehicle traveling, it combines with charging and battering swapping, two character of electricity supplementary way, using the Monte-Carlo method for the vehicle, battery change, demand generation, energy supplementation to carry on the timing simulation, studying on the certain scale electric vehicle’s battery demand pattern and the number of minimum reserve battery based on the battering swapping mode under the multi-scenarios, the require-ment of electricity based on the charging mode and the active space under both charging and battering swapping. In each simulation on the day of vehicle travel time, trip distance, extraction from each time driving speed and other random variables, electric vehicles can be clearly record its specific day traveling, stationary periods, and thus describing its power consumption process. Based on power mode of electric car, the various characteristics charging mode, combined with the vehicle’s remaining charge, parking time and other factors, the electricity demand of the vehicles can be analyze. In the simulation, combined with demand for electric vehicles law and considered the reserve battery power mode conversion cycle, minimum battery reserve requirements, and the time electric vehicle charging mode, electric vehicles were studied in two ways energy supplement. The study lays the foundation of the electric vehicle coordinated charging, sizing planning of the electric vehicle charging facilities, the electric vehicle and the V2G, utilization of renewable energy and electric vehicle load impacting on the grid load, power quality and grid economy.(2) The thesis proposes a road costing method for distribution solutions for power plants within an urban area. Taking the vehicle density differences within the region and the differences in the construction of road network into account, it has set up a behavioral model aiming to determine the best path and the best optional of electric vehicle by transferring from directed graph to the binary weighted tree for traversal. By timing simulation of vehicle behavior to achieve a costing on distribution solutions for power plants switching circuit, it also studies on the cost of battery swapping station distribution program for power plants’service capacity and the impact of the average load of each battery swapping station. Analysis through zoning, road network information simplified road network information as grid information, we describe the spatial relationships of vehicle location within the region, the destination location and position of power plants which achieve a distribution program for power plants in the region on the road costs computing, and as a basis for research on service capacity within the urban area of a distribution program. This research can be the basis of optimization for power distribution network, the sizing of battery swapping station and the earnings estimates of the battery swapping station distribution program. Meanwhile, The method also can provide useful references for the related research of centralized charging station.(3) It has established a model, power plants operate analysis. Targeting on maximize service capacity, adding the demand for electricity as queued input source from timing simulation by thinking the behavior of traveling regularly over, considering the vehicle waiting-timeout-exit into in the model, classified, hours, charging scheme under Trace Operate Unit, cell cycle and the minimum investment in equipment for power plants operating model, it researches on the investment programs in different vehicle behavior under certain regularity conditions for electric service capability, equipment idle rate, profitability and investment efficiency. In the established model of power plants operating, maximize the number of vehicles can serve as operational objectives of power plants taking into account the equipment recycling in station at the same time. Operational model for the electric vehicle service equipment makes a variety of categories. The use of electric cars on the length of time for each type of equipment is subject to different distributions. When demanding electricity, the vehicles would begin to service only after getting all the necessary equipment. Operating model under TOU background, without increasing the number of batteries minimum reserve requirements premise, the part of the battery charging can be arranged in low price period to reduce the operational costs for power plants. The study will lay a foundation on optimized device configuration for battery swapping stations, improving profitability and investment efficiency. It also may cast a light in the research of centralized charging station and distributed charging pile construction under the charging mode.