Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between Pubulic Investment And Private Investment In China Since1978

Investment, consumption and net import are called Three-carriages forstimulating economic growth, among which, investment is the quickest engine andone of the most important instruments in Macro-Regulation. Investment has alwaysbeen the strongest impetus in economic development of our country. After thefinancial crisis, government investment becomes the main force for economicgrowth. Therefore, the pattern that investment growth driven by the government andstate-owned economy is taken shape. However, government investment isunsustainable as the motivation of growth. The economic gain cannot totally rely onexternal force. At the same time, fiscal deficit can hardly afford the capital demandfor long-term investment growth. The motivation of investment must transfer toprivate investment. The economic gain can acquire its inner and sustainable impetusonly if the confidence of private investment recovered. Therefore, how to balancethe relations between public investment and private investment, how to encourageand promote the development of private investment in order to promote theeconomic gain is worth researching.First the dissertation evaluate the relative literature from three different viewswhich are the relationship between public investment and economic growth, whetherpublic investment complements or crowds out private investment, the determinantsof private investment. We make a basic judge about the characters of China’s publicinvestment and private investment, including scale, Structure and existing problems.Then we make analysis of how infrastructure Investment, science and educationinvestment and Public Administration Investment affect publicinvestment in Nationwide by using time series.With regard to the relations between public investment and private investment,this dissertation adopts the methods of the combination of static and dynamic such asGranger Causality Test, Co-integration and VAR Impulse Response with provincialpanel data, making research on whether the public investment is competing with or complementing the private investment, furthermore on the impact ofinfrastructural investment, science and education investment and PublicAdministration Investment on private investment. Considering that, our country isunder the transformation from fiscal dominant to bank-based regime, financialdevelopment and fiscal revenue are the key factors that influence the relationsbetween public investment and private investment. This dissertation adopts themethods of combining theoretical analysis and empirical test with provincial paneldata, makes research on models that taking financial development, fiscal revenue andfiscal decentralization as variables, finding out the structural difference of impact offinancial development and fiscal decentralization on the relations between publicinvestment and private investment among provinces. This paper also makes aprediction of optimal ratio of public investment among provinces.Finally, based on comparative analysis of empirical test results, the dissertationlearn from the advanced experience of developed countries，the dissertation proposesome relevant policy suggestions of how to improve local public investmentmanagement and promote private investment.