Demand Characteristics Oriented Research On Joint Housing Choice Of Urban Residents

Solving the housing problem is a complicated systematic engineering. To makerelevant housing policies requires us to understand the characteristics of the housingconsuming group. In recent years, both the supply and the demand in China’shousing market have shown their prosperity. China’s economy was boosted by therapid development of housing market. Meanwhile, the insufficient study on housingdemand has resulted in irrational construction and supply-demand structureimbalance. Many houses are left vacant while others are short for demand. This canhardly be solved by macroscopical study but microcosmic study on housing resourceallocation. Microcosmic housing resource allocation is reflected by the match ofhousing commodity and housing consumer, viz. the match of individual resident andhouse. Based on the above mentioned conditions, this dissertation studies themicro-data obtained from questionnaires, explores the relationships betweenhousing commodity and housing consumer’s characteristics, reflects and explainshousing consuming characteristics, helps the government and housing supplierscatch the residents’ housing consuming mentality, and improves the efficiency ofhousing resource allocation.The dissertation analyses the study basis related to housing choice, includingthe definition of housing, housing demand, housing choice, and the theory basis ofhousing choice study. Then, based on the study structure, analyses and selects thevariables of the joint choice of housing tenure and building characters, residentiallocation choice and the time of first homeownership, decides the data to be collected,and designs related questionnaire. Beijing, Shanghai, Harbin and Chengdu arechosen to be the target cities, and finally return1581micro-samples.For the joint choice of first-time homeownership and housing tenureproblemthis dissertation used Life Tables and Cox model of Survival AnalysisMethod, longitudinally analyzed the distribution function of potential first-timehousing consumers’first-time homeownership survival timeand factors affecting theoccurrence probability of first-time homeownership. It introduced the SurvivalAnalysis Method, combined research contentsto established theoretical model andthen used the questionnaire survey to obtain1062retrospective micro data andofficial released macro data of theoretical model calibration, hence acquiredthedistribution function of the potential first-time house consumers’ first-timehomeownership survival time. In addition, it acquired factors affecting theprobability of occurrence of the first event of the purchase, such as individualcharacteristics, macro-economy and real estate market environment, monetary policy, transaction tax policyofsecond-hand housing, differentiated credit loanpolicy, land policy, and important events in human life.For the joint choice of housing tenure and building characteristics’ categoryproblem this dissertation chooses variables from the aspect of individual demograticand socio-economic attribute and residential preference among1136samples fromBeijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Harbin, and builds up a Bayesian Networkmodelbased on the knowledge of Bayesian Network. The model is built up bystructure study using K2algorithmand parameters studu using Maximum LikelihoodEstimation (MLE).The result of consumer groups characteristics diagnose inferenceof housing categories joint choice are finally obtained by using and Joint TreeInference Engine.For the joint choice of residential local and neighborhood characteristicproblem this dissertation constructs an index system from the aspects ofenvironment, education, business, communications and neighborhood andcommunity.141community samples in Harbin city are classified by the above fivecategories and make up a choice set. Variables such as individual demogratic andsocio-economic attribute, housing demand, working commuting demand andlocation preference of amenity characters are selected as the driving factors of jointlocation choice. The driving effect on location choice of each variable is obtainedafter the exploratory analysis and MNL model analysis. The consistency of statedresidential preference of amenity characters and revealed preference of timingchoice is also testified.In this dissertation, three joint selection model results aresummerized and therelationship between housing demand characteristics associated with differentcategoriesis analyzedwith multiple correspondence analysis based on the optimalscale transformation, verifying the rationality of the theoretical model and revealingthe microscopic features of urban residents’ housing demand and matchrelationships with those who choose. Finally, this dissertationputs forward relevantsuggestions to the government departments, sto and housing consumers.