Research On The Growth Model Of Peer-to-Peer Online Lending Platforms

With the financial liberalization, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) online lending, as a novel internet-based pattern of financial lending, will be in a high degree of expansion under the domestic huge population and increasingly financing needs in China. However, the growth mechanism models that describe the growth law of P2P online lending platforms (P2POLPs) don’t work well. Moreover, the growth factors of P2POLPs are also not coherent.Therefore, with the severe competitive environment, the survival and development of platforms will confront with severe challenges. In this dissertation, three research models were proposed, including an autonomous learning value dynamics model of P2POLPs, a coopetition model and a comprehensive evaluation model which based on the perspective of self and competitive growth, survival and development factors, respectively. Our contributions are shown as follows:Firstly, a dynamic growth model with the characteristic of "rich get richer" and "autonomous learning value" of P2POLPs was developed. The effect of learning feedback delay on the growth of P2POLPs was analyzed from nonlinear dynamics. The relationships between learning feedback delay and the phenomenon of winner-take-all, coexistence and periodic fluctuation were found. This delay was used to reflect the strength of autonomous learning ability and show the autonomous learning value of P2POLPs. The results indicate the importance of autonomous learning value on P2POLPs, and deepen the operators’ understanding of the growth of P2POLPs. Finally, a numerical simulation was conducted to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of results.Secondly, an exhaustive study for the periodic fluctuation of P2POLPs was conducted. The explicit formulas determining the stability and periodic fluctuation of P2POLPs were formulated by using the center manifold theory and normal form method. This research shows that the features of "trying to overtake each other" and "arising and subsiding" would emerge as the P2POLPs develop, which provide reference and guidance for P2P operators to further understand the growth law of P2POLPs and make the feasible strategies.Furthermore, a coopetition model of P2POLPs was established. The mutual benefit and win-win would be confirmed with cooperation by analyzing the equilibrium solutions of model. The relationships between cooperation strength and the phenomenon of "winner-take-all" and "coexistence" were also found. And then, the numerical simulation was used to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of conclusions, which could provide the theoretical evidences for P2P operators to carry out the coopettion strategy.Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method for P2POLPs which based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and three parameters interval fuzzy technique order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) was proposed. Meanwhile, AHP and three parameters interval fuzzy value were introduced to obtain the weight of criteria and represent the preference of experts, respectively, and TOPSIS was applied to order platforms. Not only was the direction that conduces to the existence and development of platforms achieved, but also it would be beneficial to help clients to select the P2POLPs.Finally, an example was employed to demonstrate the applicability of evaluation model.The growth models and comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this dissertation will make some contributions to the theoretical and methodology development of e-commerce and decision-making. Meanwhile, it also furnishes the healthy development of P2POLPs with valuable instructions.