Researeh On Risk Intelligent Evaluation And Early-warning Method Of Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement

At the same time which continued to maintain and strengthen the international competitiveness of the Yiwu Small Commodity Market, in view of the uneven feature of these data of SCBs and IFFEs on the market often contain a large number of vague, incomplete and uncertain information, this study builts credit evaluation index system and establish a credit warning prototype system for Yiwu Small Commodity Buyers and third party logistics (International Freight Forwarding Enterprise representative). It provides a reference standard for the majority of the SMEs in the Yiwu Small Commodity Market, which evaluates and selects trading partners science, reasonable and timely, improves the ability to respond to the credit risk greatly, reduces the huge economic losses resulting, and promotes the Yiwu Small Commodity Market developed healthy, sustainable and prosperity.Specific studies include:Chapter1:IntroductionFirstly, this chapter analysis of the Yiwu Small Commodity foreign trade background, roughly summarized and summaried from the three aspects of the construction of evaluation index system, the choice of evaluation method, as well as the establishment of the risk early warning system for domestic and foreign research results.Then it briefly introducts the study objectives, methods, content and ideas of this paper.Chapter2:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement CharacteristicsFirst of all,this chapter summarizes the development process and its phase characteristics of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Market; Then, it analysis of the genetic mechanism of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Market through highlights the significant competitive advantage by describing the status of Yiwu enterprises cluster, and discriminats the origin of the Small Commodity Market by reviewing the unique business and cultural background in Yiwu; Finally, this chapter shows the strong position of export, and also expresses great worry for credit risk by summing up the present situation and characteristics of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement. Chapter3:The Credit Risk of the Yiwu Small Commodity ProcurementThis chapter fisrtly introduces the relevant knowledge of supply chain risk, supply chain risk transfer with a literature review, then narratives the related content of the foreign trade supply chain and small and medium-sized foreign trade supply chain risks. Secondly it elaborates the transfer mechanism of technical credit risk, freight credit risk and settlement credit risk by summing typical risk of the Yiwu Small Commodity foreign trade supply chain.Chapter4:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Risk Evaluation MethodThis chapter does a systematic study for building the initial set of indicators, indicators reduction, weight determination and comprehensive evaluation of the risk in the risk assessment process. And elaborates in detail for a variety of evaluation methods which likes fuzzy set theory, dynamic fuzzy clustering, rough set theory and fuzzy TOPSIS and so on. At the same time, it does an empirical study for the Yiwu Commodity trade supply chain core enterprise:SCBs or IFFEs who has the right to import and export.Chapter5:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Risk Early-warning MethodThis chapter begins with a literature review of the risk early-warning theoretical knowledge and a variety of research methods, and then focuses on the relevant theoretical knowledge of the Web full-text data mining and data mining method of association rules, BP neural network and support vector machine.It establishes of the risk early-warning prototype system for both typical core enterprise which likes foreign trade SCBs and IFFEs in Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement supply chain by using the risk assessment system of Chapter4.This system was accepted of the Zhejiang Province Expert Group organizating by Yiwu City Science and Technology Bureau on March5,2013.Chapter6:Conclusion and OutlookThis chapter summarizes the entire course of the study, summes up the main results and innovation of this paper, points out the shortcomings and limitations of this research, and puts forward the visions and perspectives of the next step to study the work.