Research On Credit Policy In China

Since the Asia Financial Crisis in1997, especially the global financial crisis in2008and European sovereign debt crisis, every country in the world has chosen economic restructuring (mainly through industrial structure adjustment) as a major way to cope with crisis, exit from difficulties and maintain economic growth. By conducting reform and opening up policy in the last three decades, China has grown into the second largest economy in the world. Against the backdrop of an increased economic size, conflicts in the economic structure have become an obvious obstacle in China’s growth. How to restructure and upgrade the economy as soon as possible thus becomes the key in order to maintain economic growth in the long run.In western countries they have adopted an indirect way which uses capital market to encourage structure adjustment through finance medium. However, in developing countries, the economy still experiences transition, industrial restructuring is under urgent demand, market mechanism is less-developed, and indirect finance plays a dominant role, therefore market hasn’t taken a complete function in economic restructuring. Instead this role is taken through conducting credit policy to guide and intervene with credit lending in commercial banks for the purpose of industrial structure adjustment and economic growth.However in theoretical studies, there are no relevant demonstrations on using credit policy to promote industrial restructuring either in western economic and financial theories or in central banking textbooks. Existing research in China is bounded by the theoretical mechanism of studying structure adjustment under monetary policy framework, and hasn’t reached consensus on some important issues such as the meaning, function, mechanism, goals and tools of credit policy in promoting industrial restructuring, neither has constructed a complete credit policy theory framework. Gaps and lags in theoretical research lead to confused thinking and understanding, and increasingly prevents the role of credit policy.From the perspective of theory and practice, the paper research on a credit policy theory framework of promoting industrial structure adjustment under incomplete credit market.In chapter Ⅱ and Ⅲ, the paper introduces relevant theories and their relationships with credit policy, examines some countries’ experience of promoting industrial structure adjustment through national credit policy from a practical perspective, and sums up some useful experience and lessons from foreign countries. Based on this analysis, the paper then conducts systemic research on China’s credit policy theory under current economic conditions. In Chapter IV and V the paper systematically and thoroughly demonstrates a series problems from a theoretical perspective including what is credit policy, why we need credit policy, its function, policy making authority, transmission mechanism, policy targets, its relationship with other policies, and policy tools and usage. A credit policy theory framework of promoting industrial structure adjustment under incomplete credit market is constructed in five aspects. First, from the conflicting goals of monetary policy and promoting industrial structure adjustment, it advances that "credit policy is independent of monetary policy", and redefines the meaning of credit policy. On this basis, in response to current arguments in academia, the paper brings about the views that the role of credit policy is to adjust bank lending and make up the gap in market mechanism and promote the banks to prevent lending risks, policy making authority is the central bank etc. Second, from the viewpoint of credit market working mechanism under incomplete market and on the basis of credit rationing theory, the paper applies the perspectives of lending cost, income and risk to construct models which analyzes the credit policy transmission mechanism through which credit policy influences bank lending, and bank lending influences industrial structure adjustment. Third, based on, the theories of industry development and industry policy, the paper demonstrates the targets of credit policy to promote industrial structure adjustment consisting of four aspects, including encouraging rapid development of leading and strategic uprising industries, promoting upgrading of pillar industries, supporting fundamental industries and restricting specific industries, and builds up the benchmark to measure fulfillment of credit policy targets. Fourth, the paper elaborates the relationships of credit policy with monetary policy and industry policy, environment of credit policy and major principles of formulating credit policy. Fifth, in response to gaps in current academia, the paper conducts research on the tools of credit policy and its types and functions, categorizes each type’s characteristics and application scope, sums up the principles of using credit policy tools, and uses modeling analysis to demonstrate the roles of each tool in credit policy transmission.From Chapter VI the paper starts to analyze practice in China. Chapter VI reviews and analyzes the practice and problems in central bank promoting industrial restructuring since the foundation of New China especially since economic reform and opening up. Chapter VII conducts statistical analysis and test on credit policy effects in Tianjin, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from2006to2010respectively, constructs three multi-linear regression models with dummy variables, and uses HP filter method to study the relationships of credit policy and lending structure, credit policy and regional credit aggregate, lending structure and optimizing regional industrial structure respectively. Evidence examination shows that China’s credit policy has a positive influence on commercial banks’lending behavior. Based on the theory framework of credit policy constructed in this paper and in order to tackle some current issues, Chapter VIII gives out some innovative suggestions on improving credit policy formulation from three aspects, including optimizing institutional arrangement of credit policy, conducting credit policy around industrial structure adjustment, and increasing the effectiveness of credit policy’s execution.Some viewpoints in this paper not only are breakthrough and innovation to existing studies, but also construct a credit policy theory framework about encouraging industrial restructuring under incomplete credit market, which hasn’t been covered in previous academic research. Therefore, this paper provides theoretical support for adopting credit policy to adjust credit lending, and its suggestions are worth considering for policy making.