The Research On Fiscal Risks Of The Development Of Urban And Rural Areas As A Whole In Chongqing

Basing on the theory of public finance, the theory of fiscal risk and the theory of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, this study took the financial means of governmental regulation as a breakthrough point, draw lessons from the mode of foreign countries’ experience, and strive to rationalize the implementation mechanism and the internal rules of the fiscal risks of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support, with a variety of research methods. This study first analyzed comprehensively the form and cause of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support at Chongqing, then explored the prediction and the control path of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support in Chongqing, so as to provide policy recommendation for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole.I. Basic Conclusions1. As for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support, the effect was not obvious, and the performance was significantly different. We measured the level of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole both in Chongqing and the districts of Chongqing with the method of factor analysis, and analysis the effect of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support with the panel data, then use the method of DEA to evaluate the performance of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support. We found that the role of fiscal spending in promoting urban and rural development was not significant from the point of effect, and in the view of specific performance, the performance of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support remained relatively low in the poor districts where the dual urban-rural structure was obvious, although the overall performance in Chongqing was increasing in recent years.2. There were many problems of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support. As the pilot area of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, Chongqing’s financial support did not meet the requirements of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, while there were many problems of fiscal risks in the fields of labor, social security, public education, and infrastructure, which essentially due to the current uncoordinated relationship between the central government finance and the local government finance, imperfect legal system of financial support, the contradiction between supply and demand of rural public goods, the unreasonable structure of financial support for agriculture, low financial support for agriculture use, the efficiency of management, and the characteristics of monopoly of public goods caused by the government.3. Risk control is the guarantee of financial support for the development of urban and rural as a whole. There are certain fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural as a whole implemented by financial support in Chongqing. Thus to achieve harmonious development of the urban and rural as a whole, we should defuse fiscal risks by establishing regional risk coordination mechanism, enhancing the establishment of legal system of social security, promoting system innovation, highlighting the supervision to, and strengthen the prevention of financial risk from four aspects such as the market mechanism, guarantee mechanism, incentive mechanism and constraint mechanism.4. It is advisable to establish a stabilization fund so as to innovate the model of fiscal risks control of the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing. The key method to control fiscal risk the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing is to stabilize the system risk. If we want to block the fiscal risks triggering, we should make a layout from the strategic level to set up the stabilization fund so as to make innovation in the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing basing on the prediction of the future fiscal risk, accomplishing "nip in the bud".II. The main innovations1. In the perspective of fiscal risks, this study reveals new problems in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. With the steady development of the industrialization process in Chongqing, the accelerating pace of urbanization results in some problems and potential fiscal risks in the process of financial support for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, especially the issues and risks in the aspects of labor, social security, public education, housing and infrastructure protection and other, which in previous studies did not reveal the system. In this paper, we try to constitute a theoretical analysis framework for the research on the development of urban and rural as a whole from three aspects such as the implementation mechanism, scope and methods, and performance evaluation, and the formation and transmission mechanism of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, so as to grasp the internal law of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole deeply, and reveal their specific performance through the empirical procedure and the corresponding empirical test.2. This study presents the control path of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. Financial support for rural and urban development is an important means to adjust the relationship between urban and rural residents, But for in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by the financial support at Chongqing, because of the production relations facing deconstruction and reorganization in the old bound under the strong impact, which will inevitably derived from certain financial risk, showing the trend of high incidence and complicated, it is a new topic to prevent and resolve the financial risk. This study evaluates the fiscal risks of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, explores the forming causes of fiscal risks, and tries to break through the original frame by establishing the stabilization fund system, making innovation in the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing in the use of artificial neural network prediction of the future fiscal risk.3. This study established a new risk early warning model in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. In the evaluation of the financial risk of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, because of the more noise existed in the sample, the related statistical data quality may be lacking. However the BP artificial neural network model can break these Limitations of data sources, and gradually optimize the training process through learning and training, according to the dynamic changes in the external environment, so as to improve the ability of deal with the fiscal risk data information in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, what’s more, establish a more credible risk early warning model.