Study On Consumer Market Effects Of Income Distribution Evolution In Urban

Since the reform and opening up in1978, China has entered a period of rapid development,and the rapid economic growth has brought a rapid increase in the level of income and itsdistribution also evolution drastically in a short time, so problems encountered and solved laterappeared again and again must come more obvious and severe than in developed countries. Chinathis particular economic environment determines the theoretical innovation and policy practicesthroughout the development process is bound to encounter many new challenges and newtheoretical issues which is different from the Western. As a result, from the perspective of theincome distribution evolution, studying the mechanism of income and consumption and seeking abreakthrough of releasing residents’ demand has an important theoretical and practical significance.In view of the above considerations, this paper follows the research mentality of “EconomicGrowth�'Income Distribution Evolution�'Changes of Consumer Behavior�'Evolution ofthe Level and Structure of Consumer Demand”, puts changes of the income distribution as thestarting point and as the driving force of consumer demand evolution, and then we propose thetheoretical expectation that consumer market effects of income distribution evolution, on which wecarry out the micro-econometric study deeply.Firstly give a simple review and assessment of the Western classical theory, and then under theassumption of heterogeneous groups that have different motives in savings, we get the "saddle"relationship between income and savings, which can be used as the Western theoretical basis ofeffect analysis between income distribution and consumption. But through statistical analysis ofstatus that our urban residents’ income distribution evolution and demand change, we find that thisrule does not meet our residents unique intermittent cyclical fluctuations of consumer behavior andour status quo demand of "insufficient overall demand, strong local demand", so it is difficult torealize the transition from the micro to the macro by the way as Western. As a result, we convertideas to the income distribution, and propose the theoretical expectation of consumer market effectsof income distribution evolution finally.In order to characterize income distribution evolution and design income quantitativevariables that follow-up study required. Firstly, base on the large sample survey data of eight year’sCHNS data and2000-2009statistical yearbook urban group data, through a method combination of non-parametric kernel density estimation and several forms of parameter-function, we get theconclusions that the trend of China’s urban residents income transfer from low to high upsignificantly, but this increase is not synchronized, which has led to a widening income gap.Secondly, we obtain the mean change, variance change and residual change of income distributionevolution by counterfactual analysis, where the mean change is dominant, followed by the variancechange, last is residual change, by which we know that the promoting role of the economicdevelopment is the most important and the second is the distribution system.Then from the perspective of income distribution changes, according to economic logic ofconsumption theory, and under the premise of heterogeneity, we establishe a mathematical model tostudy how the evolution of income distribution impacts on the total consumption, whose resultshow that income distribution changes would generate the level effect, scale effect in the group anddistributional effect between the groups. Adopted in2002and2007CHIP urban data, based onthreshold regression, empirical results show that level effect dominates on the impact of changes intotal consumption, scale also reflects a certain inhibitory effect for the high to low populationreflux, and the overall effect of distributional effects between the groups is very small, so impactionof the income gap on total consumption is not so big as imagined, but effects between groups havea big difference, especially low-income groups take the greatest inhibitory effect on totalconsumption.Based on the research in the previous chapter, takes a further study on the demand effects ofincome evolution on the expenditure quantiles. In order to ensure comparability of data, weconstruct a quasi-panel of CHIP data, and by quantile regression of its threshold model we finshiedthe estimate. The main conclusion is that scatter effect caused by income variance bring dominanteffect on expenditure quantiles, while the level effect play poor performance. Showed that leveleffect contributed weakly to spending, a direct result is that its leading role of consumption ratereduce; while there are significant inconsistencies between the distribution of the income andexpenditure, its roots are likely to be the consumption dilemma of durable goods that majority ofresidents faced.As for the study about effects of income distribution evolution on the consumption structure.By constructing two "counterfactual income variable", we construct a new model that dynamicexpansion of AIDS. Then based on China urban data of "Tenth Five-Year" and "EleventhFive-Year", we finish the empirical test and results show that in the Tenth Five-Year consumptionstructure of urban resident overally upgrade from subsistence to developmental level, and the mainreason is the level effect brought by the improvement of residents’ average revenue. While during the Eleventh Five-Year period, the horizontal effect is not significant any more, scatter andheterogeneity effects take the dominant role, which cause decline of the whole society demand. Butincome inequality still has some positive effects on individual consumer market, especially for themarket of durable goods and consumer services, culture and entertainment. The high-income grouphas a significant class of service consumer demand, showing that there will be a further escalationof our consumption structure. So level effect major impacts the overall demand, while variance andresidual effects are more inclined to affect the specific market demand.In the end, we take further study on the effect of income distribution change on the singlemarket with family car market as an example. Income distribution evolution generate three effects,including level effect, scatter effect and heterogeneity effect on consumer demand for family carsand other durable goods. Empirical analysis found that, level effect almost always play a major rolein promoting car’s consumption; scatter effect has a greater inhibition on the families ofmiddle-class and less, but has a positive impact on the higher income groups, especially for thehighest income group, whose scatter effect is greater than the level effect, so it has a smallerpositive effect on the whole; as for heterogeneous effect, it’s very weak. Based on revenue trends,there is a possibility the automotive market shrinking, so income distribution reform and industrialplanning process needs to be more cautious.