International Crude Oil Price Volatility On China’s Macroeconomy

As we all know, the oil in the world today is to promote the continuous progress of humansociety, and to promote a healthy global economy, a very important matter to sustained growth.With the advancement of science and technology, oil economic growth and social development inthe course of which play a very important role. In addition, along with expanding China’s openingup and sustained robust macroeconomic growth, China’s dependence on the demand and supply inthe international crude oil increased every year, in addition, the ups and downs of international oilprices and volatility, are bound have an impact on China’s macroeconomic performance. Underthe premise of this thesis is to think about these issues, particularly relying on special backgroundin crude oil prices, a detailed discussion of the specific characteristics of international crude oilprice fluctuations, as well as the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on thecountry’s macroeconomic performance in the process. This thesis is divided into the followingchapters specifically:In Chapter1, the first topic of this paper describes the background, and the significance ofthe study, and then lists out the thesis research ideas and the specific contents, then several issuesto be studied in this thesis has been carried out based on combing the literature and summarized,mainly from the following aspects were reviewed: First, the literature on financial and economictime series multi-institutional review of the dynamic changes in effect test; Second, the literatureon financial and economic time series of long-term memory test review; Third, the literature onthe relationship between crude oil price fluctuations review of key macroeconomic variables;Fourth review of the literature on the price of crude oil pricing mechanism research. In addition,this paper describes the main innovations.In Chapter2, focusing on the core of the theoretical part of this paper, that is, considering theenergy element of economic theory and model introduction. We first review the theoretical modelof neoclassical economic growth, then discusses the analysis of energy investment and economicgrowth in the neoclassical theory of economic growth model based on association issues.In Chapter3, on the basis of China’s Daqing, Shengli and European Brent crude oil spotprices in the range of monthly data from January2003to March2013period, the use of "two mechanisms," Markov Regime Switching model, our Daqing, Victory Brent crude oil spot pricesand European volatility time series is divided into two distinct processes specific mechanismsstate, we call it "low price mechanism" and "high price mechanism," while, in specificconsideration of the "low-price mechanism" and "High price mechanism" status after these twodifferent mechanisms, the use of Markov switching model transition probabilities domestic crudeoil market price time series between different mechanisms conversion calculations, the price ofdomestic crude oil market mechanisms sequence of multi-analyze the effects of dynamicchanges.In Chapter4, the paper selected our Daqing, Shengli and European Brent crude oil spotprices in the range of monthly data from January2003to March2013period to measure specificdomestic crude oil prices, domestic oil market and further calculate the logarithm yield time series,on this basis, this paper introduces and describes the time-varying characteristics of China’sDaqing, Shengli and the spot price of Brent crude oil as well as the time series of Daqing, Shengliand the spot price of Brent crude oil yield logarithmic time sequence and characterization ofChina’s Daqing, Shengli, and when the spot price of Brent crude oil on the number of time seriesof yield volatility and changes in distribution, then we try to replace based on Student-tdistribution to specifically describe the normal domestic and international crude oil market yieldtime series The significant "fat tail" distribution properties have, and then by building ARFIMAmodel, FIGARCH model and ARFIMA-FIGARCH model of Daqing, Shengli and Brent crude oilspot prices on the dynamic process of several yield time series of systematic and comprehensiveanalysis aimed In the measure and identify domestic and foreign crude oil market yields andvolatility time series time series are characterized by long-term memory effects.In Chapter5, on the one hand based on the first quarter1998to first quarter2013Brent spotprice range range of quarterly data to measure specific international crude oil prices, and based onthe first quarter1998to first quarter2013quarterly data within the range of the interval to realGDP growth of China’s macro-economic growth of specific measure, the use of vectorautoregression (VAR) model building and estimation, Granger causality test, impulse responsefunctions and variance decomposition method to estimate the specific test of international crudeoil issue price cycle correlation between GDP growth and China, in addition, we have obtainedthe spot price of Brent quarterly data based on HP filtering technology cycle component of timeseries and a quarter of China’s GDP growth rate component of time series data, using vectorautoregression (VAR) model building and estimation, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition method to estimate the specific inspection problemsassociated with the international crude oil price fluctuations in the volatility of GDP growthbetween. In addition, this chapter based on monthly data Brent spot price of the January1998-March2013period ranges specific measure in international crude oil prices and the monthlyconsumer price index in China based on the January1998-March2013period range data, themonthly producer price index data, the use of multi-vector autoregression model construction andestimation (VAR), Granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decompositionmethod to estimate the specific test of international crude oil prices related to key macroeconomicvariables issues.In Chapter6, the paper first introduces the current oil pricing mechanism in China, on thisbasis, a detailed analysis of the advantages of China’s current oil pricing mechanism and thedrawbacks of China’s current oil pricing mechanism, and further, the paper summarizes our Someproblems of the existing pricing mechanism exists among the specific end, this paper also putsforward some improvement in China’s oil pricing mechanism reform program.